IATA: US imports temporarily surge as companies seek to beat tariff deadlines

IATA reported (17-Apr-2025) imports to the US "surged" more than 20% year-on-year in Jan/Feb-2025, "in anticipation of the Trump administration's new tariff regime". The association stated: "This exceptional increase in imports to the US reflects one-off front loading rather than a sustained rise in demand", adding: "The associated revenue boost for air cargo carriers might not be able to offset longer term headwinds". Details include:

• US exports increased approximately 5% for Jan/Feb-2025, expanding the country's trade deficit to new highs of USD131 billion in Jan-2025 and USD123 billion in Feb-2025. IATA stated: "The sharp deterioration in the trade balance will subtract from GDP growth" for 1Q2025;
• The increase in imports resulted in greater congestion at some US ports, driving some companies to move to air cargo "as more firms have rushed to beat tariff deadlines";
• The US will remove the de minimis tariff exemption, which allows low value parcels to enter the US duty free, on 02-May-2025. De minimis shipments make up 5% to 10% of the China-US trade lane and are "expected to decline significantly once the exemption expires". IATA stated that the impending removal of the exemption "contributed to a 37% increase in air cargo yields on shipments from China to the US" between early Mar-2025 and early Apr-2025. The association said yields may remain elevated during Apr-2025.

IATA concluded: "The blanket 10% tariff on all imports, along with a series of steeper, targeted duties on specific countries and product categories, will slow the imports in the coming months, dampening global trade flows, disrupting supply chains, and weighing on economic growth". [more - original PR]