IATA: Economic indicators may suggest weaker growth rather than recession

IATA reported (16-Aug-2019) risks to the global economy outlook "are clearly tilted to the downside", noting an inversion in the US Treasury bond yield curve, a recent sell off in global equity markets, ongoing trade tensions and "various simmering geopolitical concerns". The OECD's global composite leading indicator (CLI) has been trending downwards for 18 consecutive months, highlighting the recent moderation in global economic activity and the outlook. However, IATA noted that not all downturns in the CLI are related to global RPK recessions and periods of RPK recession have come at times when the CLI is at, or accelerating towards, a trough. IATA stated the CLI is presently improving, having passed a trough seven months ago. IATA stated: "Businesses and consumers are right to be anxious in the current environment of heightened uncertainty,however at this stage there is reason to think that we might just be in for a period of weaker growth, rather than outright recession". [more - original PR]