IATA: Airline profits and margins to shrink but remain positive in 2026

IATA Economics reported (19-Jun-2026) airline profits and margins are expected to shrink but remain positive in 2026. Details include:

• IATA halved its 2026 industry net profit forecast to USD23 billion, on revenues of USD1.17 trillion, with a net margin of 2%. Prior to the Iran war, IATA expected profits of USD45 billion with a 4.2% margin;
• The projected results benefit from expected growth in passenger traffic of 2.1% year-on-year to 5.1 billion, record high average load factor of 84% and some hedging against higher fuel prices;
• Revenues are projected to increase by approximately 9.5%, supported by higher passenger and cargo yields. Expenses are expected to grow 13.1%, driven mainly by fuel, but IATA noted: "Costs are rising across the board". Fuel expenses are expected to reach USD351 billion, making up 31.4% of operating costs;
• Net profit per departing passenger is likely to decrease from USD9.10 in 2025 to USD4.50 in 2026.

IATA commented: "The industry's agility is again on full display, being able to show positive numbers under the current exceptional duress. However, robustness - the ability to withstand the next crisis - is hampered by structurally low profits as the industry has never posted a net profit margin higher than 5%". [more - original PR]