20-Jul-2010 12:37 PM
Farnborough: Embraer releases 20-year forecast for 30 to 120-seat jets
Embraer released (19-Jul-2010) its 20-year commercial aviation market outlook, in which the aircraft manufacturer forecasts that the size of the world fleet of 30- to 120-seat jets will increase from 4,285 aircraft in 2009 to 7,780 in 2029. Embraer also forecast 51% of new aircraft deliveries (3,495) will be added to support current growth and 49% (3,380) will be needed to replace ageing fleet. The report identified the following demand for new aircraft by region from 2010 to 2029:
- Air traffic growth:
- 4.9% world average annual growth over the next 20 years;
- Passenger traffic (RPKs) demand in 2029 will be 2.7 times greater than in 2009;
- China's annual growth rate will be the highest at 7.3%;
- Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Russia & CIS air traffic is forecast to grow by 6% p/a;
- Africa will grow by an average of 5% p/a;
- North America and Europe will grow by an average of 3.5% p/a;
- Asia Pacific and China will represent more than one-third of the world air traffic by 2029;
- USA and Europe will decrease their share of world air traffic from 57% in 2009 to 44% in 2029;
Embraer also released the following delivery forecast for the 30 to 120-seat segment:
- By capacity:
- 30-60 seats: 475;
- 61-90: 2,515;
- 91-120: 3,885.
- By region:
- Total deliveries: 6,875;
- North America: 2,400, 35% of total;
- Europe: 1,510, 22%;
- China: 950, 14%;
- Latin America: 575, 8%;
- Asia Pacific: 575, 8%;
- Russia & CIS: 405, 6%;
- Middle East: 240, 4%;
- Africa: 220, 3%. [more]