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Global commercial aircraft deliveries fell in 2016 as Boeing again outsold Airbus; 2017 to be a peak
The global commercial aircraft fleet grew by 4% in 2016 and the year ended with an order backlog of more than nine years of production. Among the regions, North America still has the biggest and oldest fleet, but the lowest ratio of orders to aircraft in service. By contrast, Middle East has the fewest in service, but the highest ratio of orders to current fleet numbers.
This report gives an overview of the number of commercial aircraft deliveries in 2016 and the outlook into 2017 and beyond. It also looks at numbers in service and on order by region. It is based on preliminary numbers from the CAPA Fleet Database and guidance on 2016 deliveries from Airbus and Boeing, who have yet to announce final numbers.
The data indicate that total worldwide deliveries fell in 2016, the first such decline for six years, as a result of delays to new aircraft programmes. Boeing delivered more aircraft than Airbus for the fifth straight year, but its deliveries fell short of its 2015 level, while Airbus increased its numbers year-on-year. Total deliveries will likely rise again in 2017, but this may prove to be a peak year.
Qantas' first 787 routes, Perth-London nonstop and Melbourne-LA, address urgent strategic needs
Qantas' first regular 787 services are a year away, but the airline is already announcing the initial routes so it can increase its proposition in deeply significant markets (and also begin preparations while avoiding possible media leaks). The well-flagged Perth-London nonstop service was announced first, but the first route to be flown will be Melbourne-Los Angeles from 15-Dec-2017.
Perth-London nonstop is less about the actual market between Perth and London (it is small) and more about Qantas connecting the rest of Australia with a one-stop proposition via an Australian port with an experience that Qantas can intimately control. Even with Qantas' successful restructuring and cost base reduction, it will still need to command a yield premium.
Nonstop to London, an unprofitable market not expected to turn to black in the short term, is also about the prestige and marketing value of being the only airline to operate Australia-Europe nonstop. Melbourne-LA was likely a late change, prompted by US rejection of its proposed JV with American Airlines. The JV would have resulted in American entering the Melbourne-LA market; Qantas' 787 will instead provide the necessary boost in presence of a market that has become more competitive.