4-Jul-2012 9:47 AM

Boeing increases 20-year forecast by 500 aircraft to 34,000

Boeing released (03-Jul-2012) its current market outlook for 2012 to 2031, forecasting a market of USD4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new commercial aircraft, an increase of 500 aircraft and USD500 billion over the previous forecast, with the global commercial aircraft fleet to double in size. Boeing stated robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years. LCCs are also growing faster than the market as a whole. There is also a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, with replacements accounting for 41% of new deliveries in the forecast. The market for new aircraft is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades. The Asia Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total aircraft deliveries. Forecast highlights:

Global growth:

  • Airline traffic: 5% p/a;
  • Cargo traffic: 5.2% p/a;

Aircraft deliveries:

  • Narrowbodies: 23,240, market value of USD2,030 billion;
  • Widebodies: 7950, USD2,080 billion;
  • Very large aircraft: 790, USD280 billion;
  • Regional jets: 2020, USD80 billion;

Regional delivery breakdown:

Freighter fleet forecast: Boeing has revised its freight aircraft forecast downward by 300 aircraft, to 940 new-production freighters (market value of USD250 billion) and 1820 aircraft converted from passenger models, due to global cargo slowness. The global freighter fleet is projected to nearly double from 1740 aircraft to 3200 by 2031, a reduction from its previous forecast for 3500.
  • Large freighters: 680 new aircraft;
  • Medium: 260 aircraft;
  • Standard-body: 1120 conversions. [more - original PR]

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