20-Sep-2011 9:25 AM

Airbus raises forecast to 27,800 aircraft over the next 20 years

Airbus released (19-Sep-2011) its 20-year global market forecast, foreseeing strong ongoing demand for commercial aircraft. Airbus forecasts demand for 27,800 by 2030, at a value of USD3.5 trillion, to satisfy "future robust market demand". The forecast has been raised from its previous outlook for 25,850 aircraft, made in Dec-2010. The global passenger fleet is forecast to increase from 15,000 to 31,500 aircraft by 2030. 10,500 deliveries will be to replace older, less fuel efficient aircraft. Airbus expects the trend towards larger aircraft will continue. Airbus forecasts that revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) will grow by an average 4.8% p/a, equivalent to traffic more than doubling in the next 20 years. Demand drivers include dynamic growth in emerging economies, strong continued growth in North America and European markets, greater urbanisation and a more than doubling in the number of 'mega cities' by 2030. Aircraft replacement and the ongoing expansion of low-cost carriers will also drive growth. Forecast highlights:

New aircraft:

  • Passenger aircraft (+100 seats): 26,900;
  • Freighters: 900;
  • Very large aircraft: 1781 (forecast increased from 1738), valued at USD600 billion. 45% to be delivered to Asia, 19% Europe and 23% to the Middle East;
  • Widebodies: 6900 new passenger and freighter aircraft, valued at USD1.5 trillion;
    • 4800 250-300 seat widebodies;
    • 2100 350-400 seat widebodies;
  • Narrowbodies: 19,200 aircraft, valued at USD1.4 billion. 40% will be required for replacement needs. 50% of aircraft deliveries in North America and Europe;

Aircraft demand breakdown:

  • Asia-Pacific: 34%;
  • Europe: 22%
  • North America: 22%;

Passenger traffic breakdown:

  • Asia-Pacific: 33%;
  • Europe: 23%;
  • North America: 20%;

Domestic passenger market growth:

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