Airbus released (10-Oct-2013) its cargo global market forecast, predicting the world's freighter fleet will increase to 3000 aircraft and airfreight traffic will grow by 4.8% p/a over the next 20 years. Dedicated freighter aircraft are expected to remain "essential" and mid-sized aircraft will account for the largest proportion of freighters, with 1300 new aircraft required by 2032. The mid-size freighter fleet is expected to increase from 744 in 2012 to more than 1290 by 2032 and maintain its 45% share of the world freighter fleet, driven by growth in emerging markets, particularly China. The company forecast strong long-term traffic growth driven by positive trends in economic activity, with emerging countries to outpace developed economies. Air cargo demand will require 2700 new and converted aircraft by 2032, with more than half for fleet replacement. The company predicts demand for 870 factory-build freighters worth USD234 billion and 1860 conversions from passenger aircraft. A further 175 aircraft currently in service are forecast to be still operating in 2032. Usage of passenger aircraft belly-hold capacity is expected to remain largely unchanged, accounting for half of international commercial airfreight. Numbers of small freighter aircraft are expected to increase from 380 in 2012 to more than 600 by 2032, driven by growth in express freight markets in China and India. The overall proportion of small freighters in the world fleet is expected to decrease slightly. The fleet of large freighters is expected to reach more than 1000 by 2032 and slightly increase its share of the world fleet. Airbus VP head of freighters Andreas Hermann said, "Looking forward after a difficult few years, world trade is showing improvements and diverse emerging markets will call for increased flexibility in air cargo transportation – for which mid-size freighters will be the primary means to achieve this. This is why Airbus forecasts that the core of future freighter requirements will be in the mid-size category, where modern-technology freighters will play a large part in future fleet replacement and long term growth." [more - original PR]
Airbus forecasts growth in airfreight traffic and demand for mid-sized freighters by 2032
You may also be interested in the following articles...
Global commercial aircraft deliveries fell in 2016 as Boeing again outsold Airbus; 2017 to be a peak
The global commercial aircraft fleet grew by 4% in 2016 and the year ended with an order backlog of more than nine years of production. Among the regions, North America still has the biggest and oldest fleet, but the lowest ratio of orders to aircraft in service. By contrast, Middle East has the fewest in service, but the highest ratio of orders to current fleet numbers.
This report gives an overview of the number of commercial aircraft deliveries in 2016 and the outlook into 2017 and beyond. It also looks at numbers in service and on order by region. It is based on preliminary numbers from the CAPA Fleet Database and guidance on 2016 deliveries from Airbus and Boeing, who have yet to announce final numbers.
The data indicate that total worldwide deliveries fell in 2016, the first such decline for six years, as a result of delays to new aircraft programmes. Boeing delivered more aircraft than Airbus for the fifth straight year, but its deliveries fell short of its 2015 level, while Airbus increased its numbers year-on-year. Total deliveries will likely rise again in 2017, but this may prove to be a peak year.
AirAsia Group fleet analysis: expansion to resume in 2017 with 32 deliveries including 15 new leases
The AirAsia Group is accelerating expansion in 2017 after deciding to lease 15 additional A320ceos which were not previously in its fleet plan. AirAsia now plans to take delivery of 32 A320s in 2017 (11 A320neos and 21 A320ceos) while returning three aircraft, for a net gain of 29 aircraft, marking its biggest expansion since 2013.
The AirAsia Group took delivery of only 10 aircraft in 2016 and originally was planning to take delivery of just 10 aircraft again in 2017. It initially slowed its fleet growth in 2015, with four deliveries, after several years of rapid double digit fleet expansion.
The AirAsia Group’s active fleet grew by only two aircraft in 2016 and shrank by two aircraft in 2015, when aircraft sales, leases outside the group and lease returns are taken into account. Fleet growth peaked in 2013 with 36 aircraft, before initially slowing to 18 aircraft in 2014 as market conditions became more challenging.