29-Jan-2025 5:20 AM
ACI World and ICAO forecast global passenger traffic to exceed 12bn p/a by 2030
ACI World and ICAO reported (28-Jan-2025) the following medium and long term outlooks from their Passenger Traffic Report, Trends, and Outlook:
- Global passenger traffic is forecast to exceed 12 billion p/a by 2030, driven by growth in international markets, particularly in Asia Pacific and the Middle East;
- Traffic is projected to reach 19.5 billion p/a by 2042, doubling compared to the 2024 level;
- Traffic is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% to reach 244% of 2019 levels by 2050, driven by strong growth in emerging markets. RPKs are expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2%, reaching 284% of 2019 levels by 2050;
- The impact of rising prices and disposable income remains a critical determinant of air transport demand;
- Despite positive macroeconomic developments, such as easing inflationary pressures, the medium to long term outlook has become more cautious due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, persistent labour market bottlenecks and constraints on aircraft deliveries;
- While the gradual recovery of international passengers and the return to profitability for airlines signal positive momentum, travel costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies continues to grow;
- Upside factors:
- World economy growth. The baseline International Monetary Fund forecast predicts global economic growth at 3.2% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025;
- Easing inflationary pressure. Global inflation is forecast to decline from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging markets and developing economies;
- Global trade growth;
- Growth in international travel;
- Stabilisation of jet fuel prices;
- Airline industry returning to profitability;
- Downside risks:
- Escalating geopolitical conflict;
- Labour market bottlenecks;
- Constraints on aircraft deliveries. [more - original PR]