The Keys To Airline Survival And Success In An Economic Downturn

Over recent years we’ve been through a period of relatively benign external inputs, with low fuel prices supporting lower fares and a solid global economy supporting demand. This has propelled the industry into a period of unprecedented profitability (although US airlines, mostly operating domestically, have accounted for around half of this).

The period of high profitability is unlikely to continue as oil prices, currently in the mid-USD60s/barrel for Brent Crude, creep up and as business and consumer confidence – at least, outside the US – slips rapidly.

The IMF recently issued a warning that the global economy is weakening “faster than expected” and downgraded GDP growth forecasts for 2019, and the European Central Bank has “substantially” revised downwards its economic growth projections for 2019, implying a slackening of demand in markets which have become increasingly price sensitive. At the same time, the entire aviation system is undergoing a technology-led upheaval of volcanic proportions, challenging conventional norms and demanding new solutions to new problems (and opportunities). 

Airline management’s role is to prepare for and manage the airline prudently through good times and bad; in a downturn this means minimising the impact on profitability while remaining competitive. 

• What would a downturn look like in Asia compared to the rest of the world?
• If growth continues how will the industry overcome problems like overcapacity and aggressive competition? 
• What challenges face Asia? Is it just more of the same challenges?
• What impact will fuel prices have on the industry?