China reopens – prospects for the recovery of the world’s largest outbound market

China was the world’s most valuable outbound tourism market in 2019, but its ‘zero COVID’ approach meant the market was almost totally closed off to international travel from early 2020 to late 2022. With China’s COVID-19 policies restricting international travel being jettisoned as of early 2023, the prospects for the new year are vastly more positive. After three years of isolation, what are the prospects for the return of major international travel to/from China? How quickly can China’s domestic airlines and foreign carriers restore their networks and return capacity in the market? Will the country see a repeat of the outbound travel boom seen elsewhere over the past few years? Will China’s air transport sector heed the lessons from operational disruptions experienced in other markets? With foreign governments concerned about potential COVID-19 transmissions, what impact will curbs on travel from China have on the international travel recovery? What other markets may fill the gap left by slow growth?