Case Study: The New Aeropolitical Landscape for International Aviation and the Reemergence of the National Interest

Governments around the world have made continuous efforts to foster global air connectivity through various liberalisation and deregulation initiatives in the past 45 years. Today, these efforts are increasingly neutralised by a more fragmented regulatory environment for airlines where notions such as the national interest are reemerging. Fueled by geopolitics, supply chain decoupling and nearshoring, this growing trend is likely to lead to air connectivity stagnation between countries and the hyper-regionalisation of air services, inevitably impacting global air connectivity and challenging core aeropolitical principles such as reciprocity, the level playing field, and consumer benefits. Our presentation will explore global traffic flows, recent changing patterns, and discuss how the reemergence of the national interest is slowly eroding consumer benefits and air connectivity between regions/countries, using specific cases as examples. We will also discuss how airlines can navigate the highly unpredictable nature of the current market, regulatory, and operational environment.