CAPA Think Tank: The re-ordering of aviation – LCCs to the fore

COVID-19 presented an unparalleled growth opportunity for low cost carriers. Many of the markets where LCCs excel - such as short haul and leisure focused travel – were the first to recover, while traditionally strong markets for network airlines - including long haul intercontinental and business travel – are still yet to recover fully. As a result, LCC traffic has nearly fully recovered, while full service airline traffic is still down by around 20%. In Europe for example, LCCs now control 40% of seat capacity through Europe, including half of all seats operated within the region. Ryanair is now Europe’s largest single airline brand by most metrics – seats, ASKs or departures – and LCCs are now four of the 10 largest single airline brands within the EU. With recession in the EU looming, traveller preference for short haul persisting and lingering concerns around COVID-19, can LCCs continue to gather market share?