Airline Leader Interview with Air New Zealand, CCO, Jeremy O’Brien

Transcript

Adrian Schofield:Well, welcome back from lunch, everybody. In this next session, we're going to talk about Air New Zealand. And I think as many of you probably know, Air New Zealand has had some pretty major challenges over the past several months. This has been mainly because of having several of its aircraft grounded due to issues beyond its control. But the good news now is that fleet availability is improving and the airline is pivoting back to a focus on growth. And the airline is also taking delivery of new aircraft. It's got some really interesting new cabin products coming online. And just yesterday we heard that Air New Zealand has named its next CEO. So to talk about all of these issues, we're very pleased to have with us Air New Zealand's Chief Commercial Officer, Jeremy O'Brien. So please join me in welcoming Jeremy to the stage. Thanks, Jeremy. Yeah, have a seat.

Jeremy O'Brien:Jesus, I wish it was just the last few months. It's been a bit longer than that.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah, I guess that, yeah, it could be a little bit of an understatement.

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah.

Adrian Schofield:So again, welcome and thanks for joining us. I thought it might be good to start with the, you know, the newest news, and that is yesterday Air New Zealand announced that Nikhil Ravishankar has been named as the next CEO. So I thought it'd be good if, you know, we could ask you a little bit about him, you know, what he's like, what his style is, and what he sort of brings to the table.

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, no, look, absolutely. And it's always good to get to know the person before the role. And so Nikhil's actually my next-door neighbour, which won't surprise any of you when you laugh about New Zealanders. We all live within a kilometre of each other. And first, he's a dad. His wife Catherine and him have 2 young kids, I think 11 and 9, both very avid cricketers and great cricketers. So he's a really proud dad, but he's also, I would describe him as constantly curious and a real innovator. So he's come into our airline, he's been in for just over 5 years and really learnt the industry. 'Cause we all know that fundamentally you start with understanding your customer segments, you get your right-sized fleet that is fit for mission for the network you wanna fly and you get those bits right. If you don't get those bits right, the rest doesn't matter. So he's come in to understand that part of it. And then where he's really leaned in is to drive us to think about the future of customer experience, the future of operations and how we can utilise digital tooling and technology to make both not only customer journeys more seamless, but also to really enhance the productivity of our people in our operations. So, you know, he really brings innovation focus to the way in which we deliver to our market and to our people.

Adrian Schofield:Great. Okay. Yeah. I mean, it's, as you say, it's interesting sort of the, you know, the avenue that he comes from, but also sounds like the board was just really impressed with him as a person, even beyond, you know, his experience on the digital side.

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, look, I mean, I think it was a rigorous process. We know it was a rigorous process, and we did, or the board did, an extensive search internationally for the role. They ran through, you know, a long process. I think Greg announced he was leaving the business in about February. but he also gave the gift of time. So his last day in the office will be the 20th of October. And so that enabled a really fulsome process to be taken through. And Nikhil had to benchmark himself against the best in the industry and around the world and came through that process. And I think, you know, we always kind of have tenures of CEOs that are for their time. And I think if we look forward into the next 5 to 10 years for where our organisation continues to evolve, it's going to be how we take the advancements in technology and use that to provide that better, as I say, customer and operational experience. So I think he brings a really fantastic lens from that perspective. And I think the other thing is, and we've talked about it this morning quite a bit, is there's so much change going on across our industry. And Nicolle was at the forefront of bringing in the agile operating model for our business. It's enabled us to be a lot more responsive in terms of, you know, pivoting when we need to. And so as we just see that constant change and the need for the business to, you know, have a strategy but have some flexibility within that to move as you see how the cards fall is really important. And so he's brought that, you know, that agile model and way of working and that speed and that ethos to the leadership team and across the organisation as well.

Adrian Schofield:Great, okay. And just to change gears a bit, and we won't dwell on this for long, but just to sort of set the scene, could you tell us a little bit about the challenges that you have faced with aircraft on ground and delivery delays and how you've had to adapt your network and your planning to that a bit?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, look, it's been hugely frustrating. You know, we had at one stage up to 11 aircraft on the ground, 5 widebodies and 6 narrowbodies. That's improving, but part of that improvement has been through a lot of investment that we've put in to really try and maintain a strong network. And so we've bought in 3 dry lease aircraft, ex-CAPA Pacific aircraft that we're operating at the moment.

Adrian Schofield:The 777s?

Jeremy O'Brien:777s, correct. We also in winter season have been operating wet leases on various markets. We used it for Perth and it'll be back again for this season. And then we actually have, and it's an astonishing number, 15 additional Pratt Whitney engines that we are either leasing or have bought whilst we are waiting for the ones we've taken off wing to come through the production line and back out again for us. And so you put all of that together and that helps a little bit and you have new delivery of aircraft coming in. So we've received the first of our new A321s earlier this year, another one just about to arrive. That's going to help us to grow, but it's still been a really big challenge. So today we've got 4 narrowbody— 4 widebodies and 5 narrowbodies on the ground not able to operate because of those engine challenges.

Adrian Schofield:Right, but that number is expected to keep on going down sort of into next year, isn't it?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, it is, and I guess this is where the growth comes in. So for northern winter upcoming season, we are starting to grow. Those extra A321s are enabling us to do a couple of things. One is for northern winter, we'll operate 1.7 million seats across the Tasman. We'll be the largest tail operating across the Tasman. We've added 130,000 seats for that season, so that's helped us to grow. You've seen routes like Christchurch and Adelaide come in, Perth go up a couple of frequencies a week. You will also see us kind of grow into the Pacific Islands, another 25,000 seats there. And then domestically, we've done things like put jets onto Christchurch-Hamilton and and started to put capacity back onto some of our highly competitive but really important jet markets, so the likes of Auckland-Chrischurch, Auckland-Queenstown, where we've been able to put additional capacity and seats in as well. So overall, it's great to be able to grow. I think the Tasman growth represents around about 10% year-on-year growth from a seasonal perspective, and as we look forward, we'll continue to kind of see the line of balance improve and put more growth into market. The other thing that helps us is we start to get delivery of our wide-body aircraft to come into the fleet as well. So in February of next year, and then very quickly followed in March, our ultra-long-haul Dreamliner aircraft come in. They've got the heavy premium loper.

Adrian Schofield:Mm-hm.

Jeremy O'Brien:And they'll operate on our Auckland to New York services, and they'll be able to be fully full payload, and so they really change the commercial dynamics, having a fit-for-mission aircraft being able to operate on that route as well.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah, right. It's just interesting that as you sort of flex back to growth mode again, it's, it's kind of coming back differently than before the engine crisis, isn't it? It's not just coming back the same as it was, it's, it's coming back differently.

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, and it's been interesting listening to the other speakers this morning. I feel like as a COVID, what COVID did for the industry is it's helped us to mature. I think we are making more rational decisions about being really clear where we have the right to win. I'm not just talking about Air New Zealand, I think as an industry we're starting to do that more rationally. We're looking at who our target audience segments are and we're looking to enter into markets that have sustainable returns. And so we've been very careful about things thinking about that. We've had to do it because we've been forced to do it because we haven't had the line of balance in aircraft that we wanted. So you would have seen at markets like Korea and also Chicago where we've had to pause. We've had to make really mindful decisions and good choices around where we best deploy the capital that we've got. And so we're doing that in a way that we really think about not only the upcoming season, but what's 3 to 5 years sustainable from that market perspective, because you invest capital, you invest people, you know, you work with the airport companies, there's a lot of upfront cost that goes into operating routes, and so you want to be really sure that you can get the long-term payoff for that investment upfront.

Adrian Schofield:Right, okay, and it sounds like, you know, particularly with the new A321neo deliveries coming in, and some of your other changes that the Tasman market is a pretty big focus for you in terms of growing that. Could you talk a little bit more about sort of how you're growing the Tasman market kind of coming up to the summer peak season?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, you know, we internally talk about it being game on on the Tasman. We've been, you know, restricted a little bit in the growth and, you know, the Tasman is a fantastic market. It has come back well after COVID, although I think from a capacity perspective, it's about 91%, so there's still room there. Industry-wide or for you? Industry-wide. And then I think, I think from the perspective of the demand, the demand has been significant. So we're seeing the Tasman overall as a market is incredibly strong and a good place to deploy our capital. We've had significant support, you know, for those in the room who have been responsible for working with the Australian Aviation Attraction Fund, that's been significant for us in terms of the choices we've made, and I think that's paid dividends for the tourism sector here and has got airlines really focused on growth. And so for us then what it comes down to is really what are optimal frequencies based on the demand we see in the market relative to our customer segment. So we run our own race, we look at our own customer segment, And we'll make decisions based on that to get to optimal frequencies, and we'll tend to look to do that before we then contemplate the investment in the capital to go into a new market. So we're very deliberate around how we're growing from a strategic perspective.

Adrian Schofield:That makes sense, yeah, yeah. And in terms of the Tasman, you know, Qantas is also making a really big push this summer. So how do you see the competitive dynamic on the Tasman market at the moment? both from the perspective of Qantas and also maybe with the reduced 5th freedom flying across the Tasman at the moment?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, the Tasman's always been a bit spicy. It's a really competitive market and that's good, you know, it keeps us on our toes and really sharp. We've got a huge amount of respect for our friends over at Qantas and, you know, we're a small market, we know each other all really well and so It is highly competitive, but we run our own race. We're really comfortable with the customer segments that we're going after and where we're putting our capacity. You know, one of the things we look at is not only what our capacity share is on a market, but actually what our passenger share to capacity share ratio is. And so are we picking up a greater share of passengers than what our capacity is? And we're absolutely doing that. And you're doing that by doing that on across our key markets. So that's really important for us. And, you know, we are also very strong from a point-to-point perspective. We have a really good right to win from Kiwis visiting friends and relatives and Kiwis and Aussies coming over to New Zealand, plus to win some of those great premium leisure segments. So we do well point-to-point and that's a real focus for us. Where we've seen, we've been constrained slightly is losing a little bit of that feed that goes over Australia into Asia. And so we see Qantas Group picking up a reasonable amount of that traffic, particularly outside of Auckland. And so, you know, that's probably somewhere for us to think about. But from a point-to-point perspective, which is our real strength, we're really comfortable with where we're at. We're kind of running our race.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah.

Jeremy O'Brien:And where we're placing our bets reflects what our— where we believe we have the right to win, who our customer segments are, and how we can best serve those. So, you know, we feel like we're in a great place.

Adrian Schofield:Great, yeah. And since we're here in Cairns, can you talk about how the Cairns route has been performing for you?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, look, great, and we're really happy to be here. And Kiwis, it's been interesting, we're having a conversation around— so we've grown our Pacific Island network, but one of the things, one of the dynamics that's changed is that Particularly with Fiji Air, they've pointed a lot of capacity from the US markets into Fiji and broadly through the Pacific Islands. What that has meant is that the booking curve comes earlier. You've got a strong relative US currency that's got a greater ability to pay prices for limited accommodation on the ground. And so the islands, and particularly Fiji, has become relatively expensive for Kiwis, and so they're looking for alternative all-round leisure destinations, and Cairns is a great destination for that. And we're definitely seeing some destination substitution and growth out of the New Zealand market for that. So, you know, we're really happy, and it's a good opportunity for the market here.

Adrian Schofield:Great, okay. In switching to long haul, you mentioned that the next 2 787 Dash 9s are coming in, was it February, March?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, February, March of next year.

Adrian Schofield:So how much more flexibility does that give you with a couple more widebodies coming in?

Jeremy O'Brien:Well, the first thing is it means that we don't have a non-fit-for-mission aircraft flying between Auckland and New York. So the current aircraft that flies there is payload restricted. The marketing seats we have on that are significantly lower than the overall operating seats. And so therefore that has Challenging commercial dynamics to it.

Adrian Schofield:Because of the different engine choice on what's coming in.

Jeremy O'Brien:Correct, that's right. Yeah, and so with the GE engines on our new aircraft, that enables us to fly that with full payload. The other thing that is a significant shift for us with that ultra-long-haul aircraft is that it's got significantly increased density of the premium cabins. So almost half that aircraft is either business or premium economy. And that's a deliberate move we've made. We believe there's a significant market from inbound premium leisure out of the East Coast of the US, and we're going really hard after that and believe with those new aircraft, with the new cabin within it— so we've done the retrofits and now we've got the line fits coming off the line from Boeing with the new cabins— that is a fantastic hard product. To go with what we've always been very confident about is great soft product and great customer service. So you put the good hard product in as well, and we believe we're going to capture a really good share of that market.

Adrian Schofield:And we'll certainly, we'll circle back to that later because there's a particular product that I think everyone's very interested in. But before we get to that, what about Chicago and Seoul, 2 of the routes that you did have to cut due to fleet availability? Are they likely to sort of come back in the near future or medium term?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, look, I mean, We'll be really mindful around how and when we grow back with those. And the reality is, you know, ultimately it comes to a decision around what are the— what's the best return on that capital that you can get relative to the other opportunities in the market. And that comes down to the directionality of the traffic flows, what the different feeds, you know, is it a wide or a skinny route?

Adrian Schofield:Yeah.

Jeremy O'Brien:But also, what's the competitive intensity on market, and where are we best placed to get a return? So we don't enter markets lightly. We don't exit markets lightly. Both of those markets will have to stack up on those criteria relative to other choices we'll be able to make.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah.

Jeremy O'Brien:One of the things, and this is where maybe Chicago is slightly different than Incheon, than Korea is we do have to think about the significant historic investment we've made. So, you know, we've been in that Chicago market for a while. We'd built a brand, we'd built a sales force, we'd built distribution. You don't want to walk away from that lightly. We've probably been a little bit in and out of Korea. It's probably a good example of maybe the pre-COVID activity that airlines would do some opportunistic markets, drop in and out a little bit. When you've got a very strong home market carrier like Korean Air, you have to be committed and be in there long term. So if we go back, we have to go in and think about it for the long term. So it's going to have to stack up from that perspective.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, yeah. And could you talk about the, the other sort of market you're doing a big push in, particularly for the coming summer, is the North America market. So could you talk a bit about that push and sort of why that's a big priority for you?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, you know, we've placed a big bet on the US market. We've had significant presence there for, you know, multiple decades. We've established an incredibly strong, you know, hub for us into the US out of LA. And, you know, we've definitely— the other opportunity for us is on the East Coast via New York. And so we see that market as having significantly and robust premium leisure demand. That's reflected in both what you see we're doing with our retrofit Dreamliner cabins at the moment. So, you know, they have about another 30% premium cabin density going in as those aircraft get retrofitted. And as I say, bringing the new LionFit aircraft in, they also have a heavy premium cabin SKU. We're doing that, and it was interesting looking at some of the Barra information earlier. From our perspective, premium cabins are holding up very well.

Adrian Schofield:Mm-hmm.

Jeremy O'Brien:And so again, I think it comes down to within the averages, there's kind of nuances, and we believe we've got a market niche that we serve very well. Premium leisure into New Zealand, we think, is going to grow significantly. We also have the ability to move through our Auckland hub into the US-Australian premium leisure, and we've done that over the years. It's interesting to see the significant capacity that the US airlines have put in direct to Australia as well. So, you know, we're very, very focused on that US-New Zealand opportunity and the premium leisure opportunity and believe we're well set up to do well from that perspective.

Adrian Schofield:Right, okay. There's also been a lot of talk about the prospects of Air New Zealand returning to London, I guess, as a one-stop. So where are you sort of up to in your thinking on London, and what sort of factors do you consider when you look at that?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, I mean, London is, you know, the spiritual home for a number of Kiwis, right? As, you know, Kiwis coming out of high school and university, the pilgrimage up into the UK and into London is kind of in our DNA. You know, we've got historical ties that are very strong with, you know, the mother nation, and we've got a lot of Kiwis up in the UK and Europe who want to have really strong ties and want to come back to New Zealand, and they want to fly Air New Zealand.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah.

Jeremy O'Brien:And so, you know, some of the things that are different in terms of how we're considering going back into that market The aircraft dynamics are different, so there is greater efficiency versus the aircraft we used to fly on that route before we pulled out, so that's different. And then, you know, we've been able to have a look at what we've seen with the traffic flows in terms of traffic into London via the various different ports we could do that through. And the reality is there's significant opportunity for capacity to grow on whatever stopover we take up into London out of Auckland. And so market dynamic has changed a little bit in terms of the amount of capacity that's come in, where demand's sitting, and the operating commercials are different as well. And so that means that it's a market that's worth reappraisal for us. And it's definitely a high priority for us as an option as we go into the next couple of years.

Adrian Schofield:Right, yeah, okay. So it may not necessarily be a stop in LA, it could be somewhere else where you do the stopover?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, I think, you know, that's a— that I wouldn't default think that it's going to be LA. It's definitely in the mix, but there are other options as well. You've got to think about the customer journey and the customer experience. And other considerations that come into that are, you know, how we work with our very important alliance partners like UAE and Singapore. You know, we kind of think of the ecosystem, and so, you know, we're considering a couple of different potential transit points into London.

Adrian Schofield:Okay, right. And we're starting to run out of time, but I am interested to hear about your thoughts on India as well. You know, it's a big market attracted to a lot of airlines right now, and I know you have had some discussions about potentially serving India. So where are you up to on that thinking?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, so I think, I think I'm right in saying it was November last year, it might have been March, there was 2 different delegations from New Zealand government that met in India. We have a memorandum of understanding with Air India and Singapore Airlines. Singapore Airlines are obviously a 25% stakeholder in Air India, and we want to work out what the best way is to serve that market. We believe there's a sustainable and growing market of traffic flows between India and New Zealand to service, and so that will— is definitely a priority for us. I think we're on record as saying no earlier than, but from '27, that will be a market that we will serve. Now, whether it's our aircraft, whether it's through code share or a JV partnership is yet to be finalized, whether it's an Air New Zealand plane, Air India plane, but that's definitely a market we'll be looking to grow into.

Adrian Schofield:Okay, and we kind of touched on this earlier a little bit, but the upcoming Skynest product I think is generating a lot of interest in the market and from consumers. Could you tell us a little bit about that? And what your thinking is on what the potential demand could be for what is actually a pretty different product in the airline industry.

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, I mean, I was fortunate enough to be part of the group that worked on the future aircraft cabin experience, of which part of that was the assessment of Skynest.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah. And sorry, just for anyone that doesn't know, it's sort of like a bunk-like product.

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, it's basically like a— on an overnight train and you've got sleeper pods, it's basically a sleeper pod of 6 bunk beds.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah.

Jeremy O'Brien:That sits between the premium economy and economy cabin. And it's a, it's a, like a buy-up product where you buy your economy seat and you can purchase on an ultra-long-haul flight a 4-hour block of sleep time within the Skynest.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah.

Jeremy O'Brien:And so you obviously have to have commercial trade-offs there. It takes 5 economy seats out, 3 at the front, and then you have to remove the galley to the back of the aircraft and you have to take another 2 seats out. So there's some economics there, but we believe it's a really good product for ultra-long haul. It gives your economy customer who wants a bit of respite from the length of that journey to get a bit of downtime and sleep. Through customer testing, it's proved incredibly popular. There are some challenges to overcome in terms of certification, but as an organisation, we've always looked to innovate with product. We had the same challenge when we introduced the Sky Couch over a decade ago that then became a patented product that we marketed to other airlines. We think there's opportunity for that with Sky buy NEST now, and it probably is a bit about the ethos and the DNA of what Air New Zealand is. We're always looking to go that little bit further and actually give some things a go.

Adrian Schofield:Yeah.

Jeremy O'Brien:And so we think this is a great product to test and learn from. We'll put it onto our first 2 ultra-long-haul line fits that come in next year, and we'll learn a lot from that. And then we'll make some decisions as to what that looks like for the remainder of the fleet once we get those learnings in and see how the product actually works.

Adrian Schofield:And you were saying you were on the business case team?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, I had to convince the business to take out 5 economy seats and put it in a Skynest. And look, there's a few different considerations there, and if you were just looking purely at a flight-by-flight, it's kind of marginal, but the reality is it's It's much more than that. It's about showing a stance of really understanding customers and a customer pain point and being willing to, I guess, innovate on the edge to solve some of those pain points and be willing to learn from that. And so for us, it's really part of really proving out our innovation mindset and continuing to kind of push the boundaries in terms of providing great customer experience in the air.

Adrian Schofield:Right, yeah. Do you foresee it being just on that New York route due to its length, or might we see it on some more long-haul routes?

Jeremy O'Brien:I think it works best as an ultra-long-haul product, just the way that the product's configured and I guess how you build the commercials around it. So on a route like New York, you can probably put 3 4-hour slots in. That's 12 hours within What can be anywhere between kind of a 16 to 17-hour flight. You've got to account for taxi, takeoff, and landing. So that kind of takes a little bit of time out. And then from a customer perspective, you know, there's— you might want to have your meal. You need to wait before you go. So there's kind of 12 hours that we feel is a pretty good slot in which to be able to kind of change those bunks in and out from from a customer perspective. So, and when we did the customer testing, it's interesting, you'd think everyone would want to go into that middle 4-hour zone, but it's not necessarily the case.

Adrian Schofield:Huh.

Jeremy O'Brien:And so we think, you know, there's a lot of different use cases for it. Some of it will be for mums and dads to get away from the kids for a couple of hours and have a rest. I certainly quite like that one. You know, others will just be where, you know, one or other partner if you're travelling with family, actually goes and has a 4-hour break and then swaps out and those sort of things. So, or it might be an entire family decides to go in there. I guess we will find out as we launch it.

Adrian Schofield:Exactly. Yeah. And I guess potentially more demands on the crew, sort of monitoring and policing.

Jeremy O'Brien:A huge amount of demand on our crew, but they love this stuff. They love solving problems. They've been through the entire process with us, so we get them in in the design phase, we get them in when we do the customer testing and we kind of throw the problem to them to solve and they come back with the, you know, thinking outside of the box and how they believe they can deliver it. And the crew set is just another way for us to show manaaki or care for our customer base. And so they really jump on top of that 'cause they love to be able to kind of give that great Kiwi service. So, you know, it's been good.

Adrian Schofield:Great. And we are fast running out of time, but just to finish, If we could talk a little bit about Greg Foran. You know, his tenure has coincided with 2 really major industry challenges. First of all, COVID. I think as he came in, the COVID crisis was just starting, and then he's had to tackle the engine availability and aircraft on the ground challenge. So how do you think his tenure will be remembered? What do you think his legacy will be?

Jeremy O'Brien:Yeah, look, I'm sure there was days that Greg was pining for for his 1,000+ stores and, you know, huge number of employees in Walmart US, right? Because I don't think he could have envisaged the challenges he was going to face when he joined Air New Zealand. Greg has a mantra which is panic slowly. And I think that has been an excellent stabilising force for our organisation where you're right, we kind of— he started, COVID hit, then Pratt Whitney engine issues, then Trent 1000 issues, and it just kind of started to snowball. But through it all, he's been a really steady hand on the tiller. You know, having worked with him, what I can say to you about the person is I've never worked with anyone who has as strong a work ethic as he does. You know, he's renowned for being up at 4 o'clock in the morning doing 100 press-ups, going up and down stairs for about another, you know, half hour, then coming into work, reading all the latest financial reports from around the world, and by about 6 o'clock the emails start to come into our inboxes and he's hard to keep up with.

Adrian Schofield:Right.

Jeremy O'Brien:But he's been, you know, he cares passionately about Air New Zealand, about our people. He's the hardest worker in our organisation and, you know, for me he's been very generous with the his time, his mentoring, and it's been a real privilege to work for him. And I think for Air New Zealand, we've been incredibly lucky to have his leadership and mentorship through what probably, when we look back in history, will have been our most challenging period in our 85 years. So, you know, he's certainly got us through a significant storm and in really good shape coming out the other side.

Adrian Schofield:Absolutely, yeah, very good. Well, that is all the time we have. Please join me in thanking Jeremy very much for some really great comments and a great overview. Thank you. Thanks, Jeremy.

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