World airline outlook: the state of the industry in 15 numbers
As 2023 begins, CAPA presents a snapshot of the global airline industry in 15 numbers.
Based on a presentation given at CAPA's World Aviation Summit in Gibraltar in Dec-2022, with updated numbers as appropriate, this graphic report summarises a range of key aviation metrics.
It paints a picture of an industry recovering from a period when it faced the most serious challenges ever encountered.
In the three years 2020-2022 the world's airlines lost 80% of the industry's all-time accumulated profit of all previous years.
Yet, capacity and traffic have made significant steps towards recovering 2019 levels, and there has been no net reduction in the number of airlines over the past three years.
Read on to assess the state of the airline industry in 15 numbers.
- Jets in service are at 99% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Seat capacity is at 94% of 2019 levels.
- Cargo traffic is at 90% and passenger traffic is at 75% of 2019 levels.
- EU air fare inflation is at 28%.
- Boeing and Airbus combined deliveries have been set back 10 years.
- The COVID-19 pandemic wiped out 81% of all-time airline industry profit.
Summary
- Jets in service are at 99% of 2019 levels; seat capacity is at 94%; cargo traffic is at 90%, and RPKs are at 75%.
- EU air fare inflation is at 28%.
- Boeing and Airbus combined deliveries are set back 10 years.
- Fuel cost rose to c30% of revenue in 2022.
- The COVID-19 pandemic wiped out 81% of all-time profit.
- There were five world regions that were loss-making in 2022; three are forecast profitable in 2023.
- USD243 billion in government aid went to airlines in the pandemic.
- There are 715 global airlines post-pandemic vs 702 three years ago.
- There are 27 years to achieve the target of net zero by 2050!
Jets in service are at 99% of pre-pandemic numbers
Commercial jet aircraft in service, by business model (month end 2019-2022)
Seat capacity is at 94% of 2019 level
Seats by region, as a percentage of the equivalent week of 2019
Nov-22 traffic vs 2019. Cargo (CTKs) 90%, Pax (RPKs) 75%
World airline traffic volumes in Nov-2022, as a percentage of Nov-2019 levels
EU air fare inflation is at 28% (Nov-2022)
The Nov-2022 price increase for passenger transport by air was +28.2% year-on-year in the EU-27.
There have been double digit rates of increase for most of the past year; >20% for past eight months. There has been a similar pattern in the UK.
Passenger air transport prices, year-on-year change, percentage
Boeing and Airbus combined deliveries have been set back 10 years
Boeing, Airbus: annual deliveries of commercial aircraft
Fuel cost rose to c30% of revenue in 2022
World airline fuel cost, as a percentage of revenue, 2003 to 2022F
The COVID-19 pandemic wiped out 81% of all-time airline industry profit
The world airline industry made an accumulated net loss of USD12 billion in its entire history up to 2009.
In the 10 subsequent years, a golden age, it accumulated USD243 billion in net profit.
The sum of these two figures meant that its total accumulated profit in its history to 2019 was USD231 billion.
In just three years - 2020 to 2022 - the combined net loss of USD187 billion effectively wiped out 81% of this accumulated profit (source: CAPA calculations based on data from IATA and ICAO).
Airline industry net profit and EBIT margin
There were five world regions that were loss-making in 2022; three are forecast to be profitable in 2023
Only North America's airlines are expected to have made a positive net profit in 2022 (source: IATA).
IATA forecasts that North America's airline industry will again be profitable in 2023 (with a margin of 3.7%).
The organisation also forecasts Europe and Middle East to report positive net results, but with very slender margins (of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively).
Net profit margin, by region
USD243 billion government aid went to airlines in the pandemic
The USD243 billion of government aid to airlines during the pandemic is more than the all-time accumulated net profits of the industry up to 2019.
Government aid to airlines
There are 715 global airlines post-pandemic - vs 702 three years ago
The number of airlines in the world (according to CAPA/OAG) declined from 702 in the second week of Jan-2019 to 536 in May-2020.
However, the 166 airlines that exited in the early months of the pandemic have been more than replaced by 179 new airlines, to bring the total to 715 in the first week of Jan-2023.
Number of airlines globally in CAPA/OAG database
There are 27 years to achieve the target of net zero by 2050!
The two most important numbers: 27 years to net zero.
