Who hurts with another B787 delay?
Boeing is now widely expected to delay initial deliveries of the B787 to launch customer, All Nippon Airways (ANA), until Sep-09 and possibly defer or even drop the B787-3 type. (There are 43 orders for the B787-3, including ANA, 30, and Japan Airlines, 13).
ANA was originally scheduled to receive its first B787 next month, though deliveries have since been deferred twice until around Apr-09.
For the airlines that have ordered the B787 – and Asian carriers are the biggest customers, by region – a further delay could mean 18 months of varying degrees of frustration, particularly if fuel prices remain at record high levels.
B787 customers by region: as at 31-Mar-08
* ILFC has 74 aircraft on order, which could be placed outside North America
Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation
Possible impacts on key B787 customers
|
Airline |
Model |
Total |
Possible Impact* |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
787-8 |
15 |
Moderate |
Hampers network expansion plans |
|
|
|
787-3 |
30 |
Significant
|
Disruption to fleet simplification and expansion as Tokyo’s airports expand in 2010 |
|
787-8 |
20 |
|||
|
787-8 |
15 |
Moderate |
Impact on int’l expansion |
|
|
787-8 |
10 |
Moderate |
See Air China |
|
|
787-8 |
8 |
Moderate |
See Air China |
|
|
787-3 |
13 |
Mild |
Possibly relieved with deferred investment |
|
|
787-8 |
22 |
|||
|
787-8 |
10 |
Mild-Moderate |
Impacts expansion/replacement plans |
|
|
787-8 |
9 |
Moderate |
See Air China |
|
|
787-9 |
8 |
Mild |
Network expansion could be impacted early next decade |
|
|
787-9 |
8 |
Mild |
Impacts fleet renewal next decade |
|
|
787-8 |
15 |
Significant |
Delays European expansion plans |
|
|
787-9 |
50 |
|||
|
787-8 |
27 |
Moderate |
Delays int’l expansion, loss of market share |
|
|
787-8 |
10 |
Mild |
Possible impact on expansion next decade |
|
|
787-9 |
20 |
Mild-Moderate |
Impacts expansion/replacement next decade |
Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation
Verdict: Industry impact
The overall net impact on the airline industry could however be positive.
The number of B787s delivered next year could reportedly be reduced from Boeing’s current commitment of 109 to between ten and 45. Up to 100 fewer B787s in the skies next year could have an overall positive impact on airline industry earnings, holding down capacity expansion and keeping load factors high at a time when global demand for air travel is softening.
Further delays will provide B787 customers, like the A380 before it, with windfall compensation benefits at a time when they could otherwise be incurring start-up losses on new international routes. Meanwhile, airlines that have not ordered the aircraft benefit by the deferred competitive impacts (in-flight product and efficiency) of the B787.
However, widebody aircraft leasing markets will remain tight, maintaining cost pressures on carriers and impacting the launch and expansion plans of others. The nascent low-cost long-haul sector could feel the impact the most.