Western Europe-North Africa routes display a unique and previously unseen pattern

Top 25 Routes Europe-North Africa (03-Oct-2011 to 09-Oct-2011) by Seats

1	ORY	Paris Orly	ALG	Algiers Houari Boumediene	17,692
2	ORY	Paris Orly	CMN	Casablanca Mohammed V	13,275
3	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	ALG	Algiers Houari Boumediene	12,758
4	LHR	London Heathrow	CAI	Cairo	12,616
5	ORY	Paris Orly	RAK	Marrakech Menara	11,204
6	ORY	Paris Orly	TUN	Tunis Carthage	11,045
7	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	CAS	Casablanca Mohammed V	10,148
8	IST	Istanbul Ataturk	CAI	Cairo	9,045
9	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	CAI	Cairo	8,038
10	CDG	Paris Charles De Gaulle	TUN	Tunis Carthage	7,866
11	LGW	London Gatwick	RAK	Marrakech Menara	7,666
12	FCO	Rome Fiumicino	CAI	Cairo	7,510
13	MAD	Madrid Barajas	RAK	Marrakech Menara	7,212
14	FCO	Rome Fiumicino	TUN	Tunis Carthage	7,070
15	MRS	Marseille	ALG	Algiers Houari Boumediene	6,818
16	MAD	Madrid Barajas	TNG	Tangier Ibn Batouta	6,620
17	ORY	Paris Orly	AGA	Agadir Al Massira	6,614
18	FRA	Frankfurt	CAI	Cairo	6,504
19	MXP	Milan Malpensa	CAI	Cairo	6,248
20	ORY	Paris Orly	ORN	Oran Es Senia	6,082
21	MAD	Madrid Barajas	CMN	Casablanca Mohammed V	5,542
22	LGW	London Gatwick	SSH	Sharm el-Sheikh	5,398
23	LYS	Lyon Satolas	ALG	Algiers Houari Boumediene	5,344
24	FCO	Rome Fiumicino	CMN	Casablanca Mohammed V	5,102
25	FCO	Rome Fiumicino	ALG	Algiers Houari Boumediene	5,020

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and Innovata - CAPA Airline Rankings Tool

Lingering service reductions with political stability the key to a rebound.

While the number of flights to Tunisia has rebounded, the Ministry of Tourism reports that visitors have fallen by 40% in the first three quarters of 2011. Unfortunately, the largest bloc of tourists comes from Libya, a group which would likely not be as dependent on air transport. That situation is unlikely to right itself any time soon.

The effects on Libya, given that the final phases of the revolution are yet to unfold, remain the most pronounced, with air service to the capital, Tripoli, still virtually non-existent. There are currently only flights to Algeria and Tunis. Benghazi, in the East, has had service restored to Amman, Cairo, Tunis and Istanbul.

Comparison of Tripoli (TIP) services 2010-2011

Tripoli Services		2010	2011
Sub Saharan Africa		37	0
N. Africa-Mideast		119	32
Europe		129	0

Source: OAG and CAPA

Egypt very hard hit

Egypt, the most populous nation in the region has recovered somewhat, but overall service to Europe remains a bit down over 2010. In summer 2011, tourism numbers had dropped by over 35% in the second quarter, 2011, and with 90% of visitors arriving by air, any reduced air service is symptomatic of a far greater economic malady.

Increase/Decrease of flights to Cairo (Aug 2010-Sep 2011)

Source: OAG

French influence, French dominance

The service patterns are dominated by the French and their former colonial holdings, with 12 out of the 25 European endpoints being in France. The North African endpoints all have, over their recent history, fallen into the French "sphere of influence" and tied them in some measure to that European nation.

Except for Cairo and unlike many other regions served from Europe, the presence of UK and German carriers is very limited.

European Endpoints

Source: CAPA

North African Endpoints

Source: CAPA

Tourism is the key

The African countries that border the Mediterranean are popular tourist destinations, offering a combination of stunning beaches and sights that date to antiquity. However for the near term, political unrest will likely keep demand below traditional levels and continue to limit growth in the region.

While a semblance of order has returned to both Egypt and Tunisia, there are a great many issues to be resolved before tourists will once again fill all those available seats. And for Libya, that date is even more distant. Nonetheless, the destinations hold timeless draws for visitors and a newly defined and perhaps more prosperous Middle East bodes well for these popular sites. But not just yet.