Russia now Europe's #1 airline market, thanks to domestic size

By virtue of shrinking less, Russia is now Europe's biggest market by airline seats in the week of 20-Apr-2020, based on data from OAG and CAPA. Its 75% year-on-year capacity cut compares with a 90% decline for all Europe as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.

According to the CAPA Fleet Database, Russia also has a higher share of aircraft in service than in the rest of Europe.

The pre-crisis European leader, the UK, has suffered a 94% decline in seats and slipped to third place this week, behind Russia and Italy (that latter has taken a first upward step in seat numbers).

Crucially, Russia's domestic market accounts for a bigger share of total seats than in the rest of Europe and has fallen by 'only' 57% year-on-year. Russia's domestic market almost matched its international market by passenger numbers in 2019. For Europe as a whole, only broadly a quarter of the seats are in domestic markets.

The growing consensus is that domestic markets will lead the post-crisis recovery. If this prediction is borne out, Russia's move up the European aviation ranking could endure.