Reassessing the future role of China in world aviation: part one – it will not be business as usual

When China emerges from its COVID hibernation it will be a different aviation force. It will not be business as usual. The world has changed greatly since Jan-2020; and China has changed too.

Financial markets anticipate that China under President Xi will lean more towards central strategy, with a greater role played by national policy goals than previously. This reflects a sense that President Xi's focus on national security and pandemic policies will go unchallenged - even if it means slower growth and shareholder discomfort.

China has in the past used the power of its outbound tourist expenditures to punish states for stepping out of line. Beijing pressure on agents, airlines and the public at large can steeply reduce tourism traffic to the countries who are the target of Beijing's displeasure.

There are many other issues that have altered the shape of China's aviation outlook since 2019.

This is part one of a three-part report.