North Atlantic aviation: gathering signs of weaker demand

In the 22-Apr-2025 update of its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts. The US and Europe are forecast to have weaker GDP growth than any other major world region, which is likely to mean weakening demand for North Atlantic air traffic.

Indeed, there was a 17% year-on-year fall in visitors by air from Western Europe to the US in Mar-2025.

Schedules for 2Q2025 indicate that airlines are now starting to trim North Atlantic capacity.

A GBTA poll shows a halving of optimism levels among travel professionals between Nov-2024 and Apr-2025.

In addition to the softer economic outlook, sentiment for travel to the US has deteriorated. International unease with the Trump administration's geopolitics has been fuelled not only by record high tariffs, but also tighter border controls, its pronouncements on Canada and Greenland, and its unpredictability.