North Atlantic aviation: forward bookings and fares are down for peak summer 2026

The market for air travel between Western Europe and the US has usually been an important source of profits for Europe's network airlines that operate this lucrative route region.

However, as the market contemplates its second summer under the second president Trump administration, there are signs that the coming peak season may be softer than last year 2025.

Visitor numbers to the US from Western Europe fell in 2025 - before they have recovered to pre-pandemic levels - with seven of the top 10 originating markets experiencing a drop.

Scheduled Western Europe-US capacity for 1H2026 is flattening and underperforming against the two markets at either end.

Moreover, data on forward bookings and air fares for Jul-2026, the peak summer period which also coincides with the FIFA World Cup this year, show falls in both indicators.

There is time for this outlook to become firmer, but the signs make anxious reading for European long haul airlines.