IATA /ACI offer positive air transport forecasts, but concerns emerge about extended WHO powers

IATA and ACI have both formally reported recovery in passenger numbers in 2022, averaging 70% of 2019 volumes compared to 42% in the previous year - although large-scale regional discrepancies remain. North American airlines have led the recovery and seem set to continue to do so.

IATA expects industry-wide passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels in 2024, then grow at an average rate of approximately 3% per annum over its forecast horizon. ACI broadly concurs.

During the COVID-19 pandemic CAPA commented on a seeming lack of coordination between global health and transport authorities, with individual governments often left to negotiate and agree between themselves on whether or not citizens would be permitted to travel, and under what circumstances.

This undoubtedly delayed the recovery, and then the industry was swamped by a sudden relaxation of restrictions for which it was unprepared. A huge improvement in that coordination is required before the next pandemic or other black swan event arrives.

But at the same time there must be deep concern at the attempt by the WHO to take control of the issuing of digital passports globally from national governments, together with the authority to otherwise halt international travel for those that do not have them - even on the basis of a potential health emergency.