Global aircraft order backlog hits 13 years. Airbus beats Boeing on key metrics
Boeing's 737MAX-9 grounding is only the latest in a series of supply chain challenges that have beset commercial aircraft production in recent years. These difficulties have been well documented elsewhere.
This report presents data on passenger aircraft deliveries and the order backlog, both on a global scale and for the two leading manufacturers.
In 2023, global deliveries were significantly below their pre-COVID peak, winding back to 2012/2013 levels, while the order backlog hit a new high.
Airbus has won the annual deliveries battle with Boeing since 2019, and has had a bigger installed fleet since 2020. It also has a higher backlog.
At 2023 delivery rates, the world's airframers will need almost 13 years to clear the log jam of outstanding orders.
Summary
- Global deliveries of passenger aircraft in 2023 were 26% below 2018's record high, and set the clock back a decade to 2012/2013 levels.
- The global order backlog reached a record high in 2023 and was equivalent to 12.6 years of production.
- Airbus' 2023 target of 720 deliveries and Boeing's 445 are likely to have been met, but Airbus deliveries are back to 2017 levels, whereas Boeing's are back to 2010.
- Airbus has beaten Boeing on deliveries since 2019, and on installed fleet since 2020.
- Both have record high order backlogs, but Airbus is ahead in absolute terms. Airbus' 2023 backlog is 11.7 years of production and Boeing's was 12.8 years.
Global deliveries of passenger aircraft in 2023 were 26% below 2018's record high…
According to the CAPA - Centre for Aviation Fleet Database, global deliveries of commercial passenger aircraft recovered to 1,263 in 2023, from 1,157 in 2022.
These numbers represent a noticeable uptick from 953 in 2021, and just 719 in 2020, which was the first COVID-19 year and recorded the lowest number since 2006.
However, the 2023 total was still 2% below the pre-pandemic number of 1,284 in 2019 - a year that was adversely affected by the grounding of Boeing's 737 MAX - and 26% lower than the record high of 1,698 deliveries in 2018.
Global deliveries of commercial passenger aircraft, 2000 to 2023
…and set the clock back a decade
Annual deliveries typically oscillate with the economic cycle, but the pattern of recent years has not been typical.
In most of the downturns of recent decades, global deliveries have recovered to exceed the pre-downturn peak by two to five years after that peak.
This pattern would have meant deliveries rising above the 2018 total by 2023 or earlier, but, as noted, the number was still a long way short in 2023.
Indeed, the 2023 deliveries total of 1,263 was between the 2012 and 2013 figures - in effect, setting the clock back a decade.
Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact. However, it is not the only factor, especially as COVID-19 restrictions are now well in the past.
The ongoing problem is the aviation supply chain.
The global order backlog reached a record high in 2023…
The global order backlog of passenger aircraft reached a record year-end level of 15,933 at the end of 2023.
This high number of outstanding orders reflects both strong demand for aircraft and the low production rates of recent years.
…and was equivalent to 12.6 years of production
Using 2023 delivery numbers to calibrate this against annual production, the orders backlog was equivalent to 12.6 years of production at the end of 2023. With the exception of the COVID-19 crisis years of 2020 and 2021, this was a record high for this measure.
Before the pandemic, the global backlog had been below 10 years of production throughout the 21st century.
Global orders for commercial passenger aircraft: number of years of production in the backlog, 2000 to 2023*
Airbus' 2023 target of 720 deliveries and Boeing's 445 are likely to have been met…
The world's two leading commercial aircraft manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing, have both experienced supply chain challenges in the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
However - Boeing's pain started earlier, before COVID-19, with the MAX grounding in 2019, and has been greater since.
Final delivery numbers for 2023 have not yet been confirmed by the two airframers. However, they are both likely to have achieved, or exceeded, their targets for the year.
These were 445 for Boeing (375 narrowbodies and 70 widebodies) and 720 for Airbus.
…but Airbus deliveries are back to 2017 levels…
For Airbus, this 2023 number would be the third successive increase from the low of 566 deliveries of 2020, but still 17% below its 2019 pre-COVID-19 peak of 863.
It would be in line with Airbus' 2017 deliveries, six years earlier.
…while Boeing's are back to 2010
For Boeing, the 2023 number would be considerably above its 2020 low of 157, but below the 480 deliveries it achieved in 2022.
Moreover, it would be 45% below its record high of 806 deliveries in 2018 and similar to its 2010 total, which was 13 years ago.
Airbus has beaten Boeing on deliveries every year since 2019
Airbus has delivered more aircraft than Boeing every year since 2019, when the MAX-8 delivery programme was interrupted. Before that, Boeing had outdelivered Airbus every year from 2012 to 2018, yet Airbus led in annual deliveries between 2003 and 2011.
Nevertheless, while the leadership of annual deliveries has changed fairly often over the years, the scale of Airbus' leadership in recent years is striking.
Boeing trailed Airbus on deliveries by 38% in 2023, and by 47% cumulatively across 2019 to 2023.
Airbus and Boeing: annual commercial aircraft deliveries, 1996 to 2023e*
Airbus' installed fleet has been bigger than Boeing's since 2020
According to the CAPA - Centre for Aviation Fleet Database, Airbus overtook Boeing on installed fleet numbers (the total number of aircraft in service and parked) in 2020, when it reached 10,838, versus its rival's 10,824.
At the end of 2023 Airbus' current fleet was up at 12,261 aircraft, which was an increase of 16% from 2019.
Boeing's was 11,013 - down by 1% from its fleet at the end of 2019, and 10% smaller than the Airbus 2023 fleet.
Airbus and Boeing*: installed fleet of aircraft**, 2000 to 2023***
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Both have record high order backlogs, but Airbus is ahead
Both of the two leading manufacturers had a record high order backlog at the end of 2023.
However, the Airbus backlog was 12% above its previous high in 2018, but Boeing's was only level with its previous high (also in 2018).
Airbus' order year-end backlog has been bigger than Boeing's every year this century. At the end of 2023 Airbus had 8,413 outstanding orders, compared with Boeing's 5,702.
Boeing's backlog was 32% smaller than Airbus', a percentage only exceeded in the COVID-19 years of 2020 and 2021.
Airbus and Boeing*: backlog of orders for commercial passenger aircraft, 2000 to 2023*
Airbus' 2023 backlog is 11.7 years of production…
For Airbus, the 2023 year-end backlog represented 11.7 years of production (at 2023 delivery rates). This figure was only exceeded once: in 2020 (when it was 12.7 years).
However, while the trend is upward relative to pre-COVID-19, Airbus' backlog is not vastly higher than the range of 9-11 years during much of the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic.
…and Boeing's was 12.8 years
Boeing's backlog was 12.8 years of production, lower than in the period 2019 to 2021, when the pandemic distorted the figures (it spiked up to 29.6 years in 2020).
Nevertheless, this was much higher than the range of 7-8 years in the decade before that.
The increase has more to do with low delivery rates than high order numbers.
Airbus and Boeing*: number of years of production in the aircraft order backlog, 2000 to 2023*
The backlog is set to remain historically high for some time
The recent grounding of Boeing 737 MAX-9s in certain configurations follows other fuselage manufacturing hitches at Boeing and its key supplier Spirit AeroSystems.
Supply chain challenges have also hit Airbus and Embraer - not least because of problems at the engine supplier Pratt & Whitney.
The 2019 grounding of Boeing's 737 MAX-8 programme was the most high profile problem of recent years, and it continued into the early months of the COVID-19 crisis.
In the recovery from the pandemic, labour shortages and supply chain constraints in both airframe and engine manufacture have further tested aviation's ability to produce commercial aircraft on time.
As Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary told The Financial Times (9-Jan-2024): "I think that both Airbus and Boeing, certainly Boeing, need to significantly improve quality control."
Even if they manage to do this quickly, supply chain problems seem set to continue well into 2024. Increased production rates will help to reduce the global aircraft order backlog from its level of almost 13 years at the end of 2023.
However, it will likely be a long time before the backlog drops back below 10 years, where it was until 2019.