For at least the next two years, aviation will be supply-constrained rather than demand driven

CAPA ANALYST PERSPECTIVE - a series where CAPA - Centre for Aviation's analyst team provide their personal views on a hot topic facing aviation around the world.

Global airline seat capacity finished 2023 at 99% of 2019 levels. Given that barely 18 months ago in 2022 global seat capacity was at a mere 50% of historic levels, this return to near normality is a remarkable achievement.

Some variability in the level of recovery and regional volatility still exists.

Asia Pacific international travel is the major outlier, finishing 2023 at around 85% of 2019 levels. However, most airlines have passed out of the survival and rebuilding phases.

Simon Elsegood, Head of Research at CAPA - Centre for Aviation shares his viewpoint.