For Asian airlines, China market is 'the elephant that isn’t in the room'

The uncertainty surrounding the reopening of Mainland China's air travel market remains the major wild card in the outlook for the Asia-Pacific airline industry. Restoring Chinese international traffic flows will be essential to the region's full recovery, but there are very few details regarding when - and how - this will occur.

Growth in outbound and inbound travel had made China one of the most important markets for many of the region's airlines before the pandemic. However, international capacity in Mainland China is at skeleton levels due to its strict COVID-19 travel policies.

Airlines are tentatively planning for China restrictions to ease sometime in 2023. Despite some limited moves by the Chinese government recently, there is not yet a timeline for more meaningful steps to reopen cross-border travel.

This limits the international recovery for some of the Asia-Pacific region's airlines. Even if these airlines fully restore other routes, they will still be missing a large chunk of their pre-COVID operations.