Europe's two major long haul aviation markets: capacity and class compared
Europe's two biggest long haul markets by capacity have long been the North Atlantic and Europe to Asia Pacific.
The North Atlantic is the larger of the two - 30% bigger in 2024 - and much more seasonal. North Atlantic capacity is now above 2019 levels, while Europe-Asia Pacific is still short of pre-pandemic seat numbers.
Breaking each market into cabin classes, premium economy on the North Atlantic has recovered the most strongly.
The seat share of first class and business class is above the averages for Europe and the world in both markets, particularly on the North Atlantic.
This report compares capacity data by cabin class for the North Atlantic and Europe-Asia Pacific in 2015, 2019 and 2024.
- The North Atlantic is 30% larger than Europe-Asia Pacific by seats in 2024 and much more seasonal, with northern summer peaks.
- The North Atlantic's capacity recovery from COVID-19 has been stronger of the two, led by premium economy.
- Economy class has led on Europe-Asia Pacific, but is still below 2019 levels.
- Premium cabins' seat share is higher than the Europe and world averages in both markets (especially the North Atlantic).
- Premium economy also outperforms (especially in the North Atlantic).
- The seat share of premium cabins has fallen since 2015 in both markets (especially on Europe-Asia Pacific).
- Premium economy's seat share has grown on the North Atlantic since 2015, but fallen on Europe-Asia Pacific since 2019.
- One in five North Atlantic seats is in a higher yield cabin.
The North Atlantic is 30% larger than Europe-Asia Pacific by seats in 2024…
The markets between Europe and North America and between Europe and Asia Pacific are the two major long haul route regions to/from Europe.
The North Atlantic is the larger of the two, with 30% more seats scheduled for 2024 than Europe-Asia Pacific.
…and much more seasonal, with northern summer peaks
However, the North Atlantic is much more seasonal, with pronounced summer peaks and winter troughs, whereas Europe-Asia Pacific has a smoother year-round pattern.
Seat numbers on the North Atlantic in the peak week of 2024 (the week of 8-Jul-2024) were 1.9 times its capacity in the trough week (the week of 5-Feb-2024).
By comparison, the peak to trough ratio for Europe-Asia Pacific in 2024 is scheduled to be only 1.2 times (the week of 30-Sep-2024 versus the week of 22-Jan-2024).
Europe to North America and Europe to Asia Pacific: weekly capacity, Jun-2014 to Jan-2025*
The North Atlantic's capacity recovery from COVID-19 has been the stronger of the two
The North Atlantic has enjoyed a much stronger recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the week of 5-Aug-2024, North Atlantic seat numbers are at 106% of their level in the equivalent week of 2019.
On Europe to Asia Pacific, seat numbers are only at 97% of the equivalent week of 2019.
Looking at all of 2024 scheduled capacity, rather than a single week in the seasonal peak period, the North Atlantic is projected to be at 106% of 2019 seat numbers, whereas Europe-Asia Pacific is projected at 95%.
In the years leading up to the pandemic, capacity growth on Europe-Asia Pacific had outpaced the North Atlantic.
Between 2015 and 2019 Europe-Asia Pacific capacity increased by 29%, while North Atlantic capacity grew by 23%.
North Atlantic: premium economy has led the recovery
The contrast between the two markets since 2019 is more pronounced when capacity is analysed by class of seat.
On the North Atlantic, the best performing class (ranked by 2024 capacity as a percentage of 2019 capacity) is premium economy, which is at 118% of its 2019 levels in 2024.
Economy is at 106%, in line with total North Atlantic capacity. Business class is at 105%, just below the market.
However, first class on the North Atlantic is at only 59% of 2019 capacity in 2024.
The two premium cabins, first class plus business class, are at 102% collectively.
Europe-North America: 2019 annual seats as a percentage of 2015; and 2024* annual seats as a percentage of 2019
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Europe-Asia Pacific: economy class has led the recovery, but is still below 2019 capacity
On Europe-Asia Pacific the best performing class is economy, which is scheduled to be a 97% of its 2019 capacity this year - slightly better than the overall market level of 95%. Premium economy is at only 82%.
Business class is at 90%, and first class is at only 63% (although this is a little better than first class on the North Atlantic).
Europe-Asia Pacific: 2019 annual seats as a percentage of 2015; and 2024* annual seats as a percentage of 2019
Premium cabins' share of seats is higher than Europe and world averages in both markets (especially North Atlantic)
As expected, both of the major long haul regions to/from Europe have a higher proportion of seats in premium cabins (business class and first class) compared with the averages for Europe and the world.
In the week commencing 5-Aug-2024, 3.4% of all seats to/from/within Europe and 4.8% of worldwide seats are in premium cabins.
The premium share is 10.9% on routes between Europe and Asia Pacific and 12.5% on the North Atlantic.
Europe, World, Europe-Asia Pacific and Europe-North America: premium cabin seat share, 2024*
In both markets first class is just 0.4% of seats - although this is considerably higher than the Europe and worldwide average of 0.1% for first class.
Business class is 10.5% of seats on Europe-Asia Pacific and 12.0% on the North Atlantic.
The Europe average for business class is 3.3%, and the global average is 4.7%.
Premium economy's seat share also outperforms in both markets (especially North Atlantic)
Premium economy (confusingly not counted as a premium cabin) also outperforms strongly on both long haul markets.
It takes 3.9% of seats on Europe-Asia Pacific, while its share on the North Atlantic is almost double this, at 7.3%.
The Europe average is 1.0%, and the world average is 0.6% for premium economy.
Europe, World, Europe-Asia Pacific and Europe-North America: seat share by cabin class, 2024*
The seat share of premium cabins has fallen since 2015 in both markets (especially Europe-Asia Pacific)
There has been an erosion of premium cabins' share of seats on both of the major long haul markets over the past decade or so, particularly on Europe-Asia Pacific.
On the North Atlantic, premium was 14.1% of seats in the week of 3-Aug-2015 and 12.6% in the week of 5-Aug-2019. Its 12.5% share in the week of 5-Aug-2024 is almost level with five years ago.
On Europe-Asia Pacific, the seat share of premium cabins has dropped from 13.6% to 11.8%, to 10.9% in the same time frame.
The share of first class has fallen in both markets.
However, while business class has declined on Europe-Asia Pacific, it has stabilised on the North Atlantic.
Premium economy's seat share has grown on the North Atlantic since 2015, but fallen on Europe-Asia Pacific since 2019
Moreover, the decline in the seat share of premium cabins on the North Atlantic since 2015 has been more than offset by an increase in premium economy's share.
Premium economy was 5.3% of North Atlantic seats in Aug-2015, 6.8% in Aug-2019, and is 7.3% in Aug-2024.
On Europe-Asia Pacific, premium economy's seat share increased from 3.4% in Aug-2015 to 4.6% in Aug-2019, but has slipped to 3.9% in Aug-2024.
Europe-Asia Pacific and Europe-North America: seat share by cabin class, first week of August in 2015, 2019 and 2024*
Premium economy has been a long term winner
As illustrated in this report, there are differences in the performance of the North Atlantic and Europe-Asia Pacific since 2015 and 2019, both in the overall markets and broken down into different classes.
Nevertheless, when looking at growth in capacity since 2015, the consistent winner in both markets has been premium economy.
Comparing the week of 5-Aug-2024 with the equivalent week of 2019, premium economy capacity was 75% bigger on the North Atlantic and 35% bigger on Europe-Asia Pacific.
Total capacity growth over the same time frame was 30% on the North Atlantic and 23% on Europe-Asia Pacific.
Premium economy outperformed all other cabins in both markets.
One in five North Atlantic seats is in a higher yield cabin
This analysis also emphasises the success of the North Atlantic in attracting and retaining higher yield capacity.
Although premium economy is not strictly classified as a premium cabin, it does generate higher yields than standard economy.
Adding the capacity in premium economy to that in first class and business class, 19.8% of North Atlantic seats are in higher yield cabins in the first full week of Aug-2024. Moreover, this share has grown very slightly from the equivalent week of 2015, when it was 19.4%.
By contrast, the higher yield cabins have 14.8% of seats on Europe-Asia Pacific, down from 17.0% in the equivalent week of 2015.
This is a reminder of the importance of the North Atlantic to the leading members of the global alliances and of why they all have joint ventures in this market.