Europe's airlines raise 4Q capacity, but supply/demand balance wobbles

Europe's total seat capacity is at 86.2% in the week commencing 12-Sep-2022, which is a shortfall of 13.8% against the equivalent week in 2019.

Europe has slipped to fifth in the regional ranking, above Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 26.7% versus 2019, but just below the Middle East, where capacity is down by 13.6%. Africa capacity is down by 10.7%, North America by 7.7%, and Latin America is down by 3.7%.

Capacity projected for Europe in 4Q2022 is back up to 88% this week after having been trimmed from 88% to 85% over the previous two weeks. If this is borne out, it will continue the progress with each successive quarter since 27% in 1Q2021.

However, with 2Q2022 reaching 84% and 3Q2022 projected at 87% and 4Q2022 now at 88%, the pace of improvement is sputtering. Moreover, load factor data indicate that matching supply to demand may be becoming more testing for Europe's airlines. This could lead to further volatility in the 4Q2022 capacity outlook.