Europe's airline capacity bumps along the bottom; lockdowns ease

Total seat numbers in Europe have dropped 86.5% year-on-year in the week commencing 11-May-2020, according to schedules from OAG, combined with CAPA Fleet Database seat configurations.

This is very fractionally better than the previous week's 87.1% decline, but the third successive week very close to -87% after hitting a low of -90.4% in the week of 20-Apr-2020.

Europe's cuts are the deepest among world regions (just). Seat count in Latin America is down by 86.4%, fractionally better than in Europe. It has been reduced by 79.8% in Middle East and in North America, 78.1% in Africa and 55.6% in Asia Pacific.

European airline capacity continues to bump along the bottom. Moreover, the U shape in the capacity recovery anticipated by Europe's filed airline schedules is still widening.

More positively, the widening of the 'U' is starting to slow, and lockdown restrictions in much of Europe are starting a gradual and cautious process of easing. This is a positive and necessary development for European aviation demand to return.

However, the easing of restrictions is unlikely to follow a straight line. Considerable uncertainty remains ahead.