European aviation's recovery climbs to a new high at winter's onset

Europe's capacity recovery has regained momentum in the first week of the winter season.

After 12 weeks at 33% to 35% below 2019 levels, total seat numbers in the week of 25-Oct-2021 are down by 24.6% versus the equivalent week of 2019. This is the highest percentage of 2019 capacity since pre-COVID.

Moreover, Europe is now up from fourth to third in the regional capacity recovery ranking. Below Europe are Asia Pacific, where seat capacity is down by 39.4%, the Middle East, down by 36.9%, and Africa, down by 27.4%. Latin America, down by 22.8%; and North America, down by 14.3%, are ahead of Europe in the capacity recovery.

The most recent ACI Europe preliminary airport passenger data indicate that traffic was 35% below 2019 levels in the week of 17-Oct-2021, when capacity was down 33%. This was before this week's upward step in the capacity trend, and followed several weeks when passenger traffic was approximately 39% below 2019.

The 2ppt gap is the narrowest since pre-pandemic and a positive indicator for airline load factors (but likely at the expense of yield).