European aviation. Seats and fleets point to 2Q2021 recovery

According to the CAPA Feet Database, Europe's passenger jet fleet in service increased by 1.8% month-on-month in Feb-2021, to 3,400.

This is almost three times the Apr-2020 trough level, but 16% below the Aug-2020 peak recovery level. Moreover, it has changed little since Nov-2020 and represents only 56% of the total passenger jet fleet, compared with the world average of 65%.

Seat capacity in Europe also continues to lag the rest of the world, falling by 74.5% relative to 2019 in the week of 1-Mar-2021, according to OAG schedules and CAPA seat configurations. Middle East is down by 55.8%, Africa is down by 53.6%, North America by 45.1%, Latin America by 43.4%, and Asia Pacific by 33.9%.

Nevertheless, a combination of seat capacity and fleet in service data supports the conclusion that 1Q2021 will be the low point in this phase of the pandemic. European aviation can expect the recovery to start in 2Q2021.