European aviation: recovery stalls as LCCs trim capacity

Europe's capacity recovery has stalled in the week commencing 6-Sep-2021.

Total seat numbers are 34.1% below 2019 levels, which is 0.9ppts worse than last week (week commencing 30-Aug-2021). The slide is not vast, but it is a change of direction after four months of improving data and then five weeks on a plateau.

Moreover, Europe has slipped into fourth place in the regional capacity recovery ranking. The Middle East, where seat capacity is down by 43.1% versus 2019, remains at the bottom. Asia Pacific is down by 40.8%, Africa by 32.6%, Latin America by 25.6%, and North America by 20.5% this week.

The small slide in Europe's capacity trend as a percentage of 2019 is only one week's data. However, it reflects both a slide in the trend of intra-Europe capacity, which has led the recovery in recent months, and in the trend of LCC capacity versus 2019 levels.

Europe's low cost airlines have consistently been more responsive to market fluctuations during the coronavirus pandemic, growing more in upturns and cutting more in downturns. LCC capacity movements are worth noting.