European airlines: 3Q2021 capacity over 50% of 2019 would be positive

One month before the start of 3Q2021 - peak summer for Europe - seat capacity for the quarter is at 74% of 2019's (based on OAG schedules and CAPA Fleet Database seat configurations). This would be a very rapid recovery from 1Q2021 (27%) and 2Q2021 (34% projected with one month left).

Seat capacity in Europe is 59.9% below 2019 in the week commencing 31-May-2021. This continues the positive trend into a sixth successive week, during which the rate of fall has narrowed by 13.7ppts. This is Europe's slowest rate of decline versus 2019 since Sep-2020.

Europe is narrowing the gap to the other regions: Middle East seat capacity is down by 54.4% versus 2019, while Africa is down by 49.1%, Latin America by 38.0%, Asia Pacific by 37.4%, and North America by 30.0%.

In previous quarters during the coronavirus pandemic capacity has fallen by approximately a half from one month out to the eventual outcome.

Of course, 3Q2021 seat count will be driven by progress on travel restrictions. However, extrapolation of the pattern of previous quarters suggests that 3Q2021 capacity at more than 50% of 2019 would be a positive outcome.