European airline capacity outlook. Uncertainty & COVID-19 cases rise

COVID-19 cases in Europe reached 360,000 in the week of 14-Sep-2020 - 167% more than the week of 6-Jul-2020 and 100,000 more than the first peak in late Mar-2020.

This second wave of the virus, plus frequently changing travel restrictions and quarantine requirements, is weighing more heavily on airline schedules with each passing week.

Europe is now into a fifth consecutive week of deepening year-on-year cuts in seat numbers. Europe's cut of -60.1% in the week of 21-Sep-2020 is deeper than North America's -56.1% and Asia Pacific's -39.9%, but less than Latin America's -66.8%, the Middle East's -66.1% and Africa's -63.5%.

Europe's route numbers have been cut by only 38.2%, so airlines are preserving networks at the expense of the frequencies that are so important for business travel.

With the last full week of Sep-2020 now under way, European capacity derived from schedules filed with OAG for the month is projected at 42% of 2019 levels, down from 45% in Aug-2020. Oct-2020 capacity is currently projected back up to 47%, but with no sign of positive momentum in the short term, this must surely be revised downwards.