European airline capacity falls again, but optimism grows

Premium Analysis

According to the WHO, the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe fell in the week starting 9-Nov-2020. The total was still 5.5 times higher than only two months earlier, but this was the first decline since Jul-2020. This could be seen as evidence that the tighter lockdown restrictions imposed in much of Europe in recent weeks are working.

For the moment, however, European aviation continues to shrink capacity faster than elsewhere in the world.

Europe's year-on-year cut in seat capacity widened to -73.0% in the week of 16-Nov-2020 - its biggest cut since Jun-2020, and 12.3ppts below the Middle East on -60.7%. Africa is on -57.1%, Latin America -49.9%, North America -46.7% and Asia Pacific is on -38.6%.

Capacity in Europe for the whole month of Nov-2020 derived from airline schedules is now projected at 30% of 2019 levels - the third month in a row with a lower percentage of 2019.

Nevertheless, falling COVID-19 numbers could herald some relaxing of restrictions in Europe in the coming weeks. Moreover, recent news of a second highly efficacious vaccine in the pipeline adds to a growing sense of optimism.

Become a CAPA Member to access Analysis Reports

This CAPA Premium Analysis Report is 1,389 words.
Become a CAPA Member

Our Analysis Reports are only available to CAPA Members. CAPA Membership provides exclusive access to in-depth insights on the latest developments in the aviation and travel industry, developed by our team of dedicated analysts located in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia.

Each report offers a fresh perspective on the latest industry trends and is available online or via the CAPA mobile app, with customisable alerts to help you stay informed and identify new business opportunities.

CAPA Membership also provides access to our full suite of tools, including a tailored selection of more than 1,000 News Briefs every week and comprehensive data and analysis on thousands of companies around the world.