European airline 4Q2021 schedules point to next step up in recovery

Total seat numbers in Europe are 32.7% below 2019 levels in the week of 11-Oct-2021, the 11th week in the region of seat numbers at -33% to -35%.

Europe is still in fourth place in the regional capacity recovery ranking. The Middle East, where seat capacity is down by 38.5% versus 2019, has slipped to the bottom. This week (week commencing 11-Oct-2021), Asia Pacific is down by 38.3%, Africa by 30.4%, Latin America by 23.2%, and North America by 18.5%.

Airport passenger numbers in Europe were down by 39% versus 2019 in the week of 19-Sep-2021, the seventh week at a similar level, according to the most recent data from ACI Europe. This compared with capacity at -34% in that week. Europe's traffic recovery has a north-south divide, with Southern Europe stronger, while non-EU Eastern Europe is the strongest region.

Europe's capacity and passenger traffic as a percentage of 2019 levels both remain on plateaus. Nevertheless, there is some encouragement in capacity projections derived from schedules for 4Q2021. After many weeks of cuts to the outlook, capacity scheduled for 4Q2021 has stabilised at 73% of 2019 levels - up from 64% in 3Q2021.