Europe aviation: schedules trimmed as darker economic clouds gather

After a brief break-out in the week commencing 22-Aug-2022, Europe's capacity recovery as a percentage of 2019 levels is back in the 86%-87% range that it had occupied for the previous 13 weeks.

Moreover, whereas that week witnessed a rare increase in seat capacity scheduled for the rest of 2022, there has been a cut to this outlook of 2ppts or more this week (commencing 29-Aug-2022).

Europe's total seat capacity is at 87.1% this week, which is a shortfall of 12.9% against the equivalent week in 2019. Europe remains fourth in the regional ranking, above Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 23.9% versus 2019, and the Middle East, where capacity is down by 14.8%.

Capacity projected for Europe in 4Q2022 has been trimmed from 88% to 86%, below the 87% projected for 3Q2022. This comes as COVID-19, and even operational issues, could be giving way to the economy as the main concern surrounding demand for air travel.