Europe aviation: schedules are firmer, but capacity recovery slows

CAPA analysis of quarterly capacity projections shows schedules for Europe are much firmer than at any other time in the COVID-19 era. Moreover, projections for 4Q2022 are higher than one month ago.

No previous COVID-era quarter has enjoyed an increase to capacity projections from a month out to the quarter's start. The pattern had been a consistent one of cuts.

Europe's total seat capacity is at 85.9% in the week commencing 26-Sep-2022, a shortfall of 14.1% against the equivalent week 2019. Europe remains fifth in the regional ranking, above Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 22.6% versus 2019, but below the Middle East, where capacity is down by 12.0%. Africa capacity is down by 8.5%, North America by 7.1%, and Latin America is down by 4.5%.

Europe's capacity as a percentage of 2019 levels has hardly shifted since late May-2022. In spite of positive developments in 4Q2022, it could end up similar to the 87% achieved in 3Q2022.

After 74% in 1Q and 84% in 2Q, Europe's capacity recovery has lost momentum through 2022.