Europe aviation capacity recovery flatlines as schedules stabilise

Premium Analysis

Setting aside the volatility around the Christmas/New Year holiday period, there has been no significant change in Europe's capacity recovery trend since it entered the range of 84% to 86% of 2019 capacity levels in May-2022.

In the week of 30-Jan-2023 Europe's airline seat numbers are at 85.5% of the equivalent week 2019, or a shortfall of 14.5%.

This has slipped back from 92.0% in the first week of Jan-2023 and Europe is now in sixth and last place in the regional ranking, leapfrogged by Asia Pacific, where capacity is down by 12.5% versus 2019. Africa and Middle East are down by a single digit percentage, whereas capacity in Latin America and North America is up by single digit percentages compared with the equivalent week of 2019.

For Europe, schedules are now much more stable than in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, and constrained capacity has been beneficial for air fares.

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