Europe aviation: 3Q2022 will struggle to beat 2Q's 84% of 2019 seats

Europe's seat capacity is at 86.4% in the week commencing 27-Jun-2022, which is a shortfall of -13.6% against the equivalent week in 2019. This is the sixth successive week in a narrow range, signalling a levelling-off of the capacity recovery towards 2019 levels.

Europe has slipped to fifth in the regional ranking, above only Asia Pacific, where capacity is down -23.1%. In the Middle East capacity is down -11.4%, while North America capacity is down -10.2%, Africa is down -6.5%, and Latin America -4.1%.

As 2Q2022 draws to a close, its seat numbers will end up at 84.3% of 2019 levels, continuing an improving trend over five successive quarters. Seat capacity for 3Q2022 is currently projected at 88.8%. Projections are now more stable and more realistic than at earlier stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, further modest trimming of this peak summer quarter is likely, given staffing constraints. The final outcome for 3Q may not exceed 2Q's percentage by much - if at all.