COVID-19: Global deaths increasing by more than 10% every day: CAPA update 02-Apr-2020
Welcome to the latest edition of CAPA's daily Coronavirus and Aviation global update. We offer this product to our active CAPA Members, as well as visitors to our website to help our industry navigate through this crisis.
The report contains a small selection of news briefs and CAPA commentary, on the US system and from each region.
Top news headlines:
- ICAO: COVID-19 could cut pax traffic by 528 million, and USD118bn in airline revenue in 1H2020;
- Air New Zealand reduces domestic schedule by 95%.
Following the aviation summaries, the report contains the latest coronavirus data, globally and by country.
- Global deaths increasing by more than 10% every day;
- For the second day in a row more than 75,000 new cases were diagnosed.
Aviation & Travel Industry coronavirus news updates
Air Capacity Update: US current international capacity approx 1.5m seats per week
Despite strict border closures implemented over the last few weeks, the US still has approximately 1.5 million seats connecting it with outside countries and territories.
United States international departing seats by country/territory: w/c 30-Mar-2020
The above is an example of future planned air capacity, available to CAPA Members from CAPA's country profiles. For more information about CAPA Membership, please click here.Aviation & Travel Industry news updates
1. Global
ICAO: COVID-19 could cut pax traffic by 528 million, and USD118bn in airline revenue in 1H2020
ICAO released (30-Mar-2020) its preliminary estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on scheduled international passenger traffic during 1H2020, compared to its original forecast for the period:
- Overall reduction of seats offered by airlines of 37% to 47%;
- Overall reduction of passengers carried of 401 to 528 million;
- Potential gross loss of operating revenues of USD88 to USD116 billion, depending upon the shape of the recovery path. [more - original PR]
2. Asia
South Korea: South Korea experiences record low pax traffic in Mar-2020 amid coronavirus outbreak
South Korea recorded 1.74 million air passengers in Mar-2020, according to data from the Korea Civil Aviation Association (Yonhap News Agency/Korean Herald, 01-Apr-2020).
This is the first time the country has handled less than two million passengers in a month since 1997. Korean Air carried 378,588 passengers in Mar-2020, falling behind Asiana Airlines for the first time in its history, which served 398,260 during the same period.
Australia/New Zealand: Air New Zealand reduces domestic schedule by 95%
Air New Zealand adjusted (02-Apr-2020) its domestic network as New Zealand moved to 'Alert Level 4' in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
The airline will operate a limited domestic schedule from 03-Apr-2020 to enable essential travel only and to keep airfreight moving. Overall, domestic capacity will reduce by 95% from pre-coronavirus levels. The carrier will operate the following domestic services:
3. Middle East:
Doha Hamad International Airport temporarily reduces personnel by 40%
Qatar Airways confirmed (01-Apr-2020) Doha Hamad International Airport temporarily reduced personnel on site by 40%, due to coronavirus concerns. These employees will work from home, or spend paid or unpaid leave. [more - original PR - Arabic]
4. Europe:
Turkish Airlines extends operational suspension until May-2020
Turkish Airlines, via its official Facebook account, announced (01-Apr-2020) the extension of its suspension of international and a part of domestic services from 17-Apr-2020 to 01-May-2020, due to the coronavirus outbreak. Limited domestic services will continue to operate.
5. North America:
American Airlines borrows USD2.7bn from three revolving facilities
6. Latin America:
ABEAR: Carriers in Brazil operating 9% of their normal networks
7. Africa
Enugu Akanu Ibiam International Airport suspends reconstruction project due to coronavirus impacts
The above is a selection of more than 150 news updates today specifically on COVID-19, from today's CAPA Membership coverage, which also covers traffic data, route and frequency announcements, government advisories and more. For more information about CAPA Membership, please click here.
Additional Analysis (please click on the headings to go to the full story)
COVID-19: Island nations' serious loss of air services. Part 1
When the General Manager of Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, the world's busiest, reports an 85% year-on-year decline in passengers since the coronavirus outbreak, says revenue could be down by 50% or more, and that the airport normally services 26,000 flights per day but it has decreased to 1200, and "those flights are mostly empty"- you know that the aviation industry has a big problem.
But at the other end of the scale from Atlanta, in the world's small island states, particularly remote ones, for which air travel is an absolute necessity, it is much more of a problem.
Broadly 25% of all independent nations are island countries.
This report looks at a selection of those states and airports, and at how they have been impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak.
COVID-19: US airlines evaluate pros and cons of government aid
As demand for air travel continues to hit nearly zero and estimates for a recovery continue to move the right, US airlines are quickly evaluating how to utilise a package offered by the country's government designed to keep their workers employed. And, if airlines agree, how to make use of loans with strings attached that could ultimately be deemed unattractive, including the result that the government potentially takes stakes in airlines.
The industry's participation in the government's support package remains tough to predict. It is a safe assumption that most airlines have no desire for the government to have a direct say in how they run their respective businesses, especially when the new normal of post-COVID-19 settles in.
As COVID-19 coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on the global aviation and travel industries, Canada's airlines are joining their counterparts worldwide in significantly pulling down their operations.
Passenger operations at the company's largest airline, Air Canada, are essentially coming to a standstill, and other Canadian airlines have also been forced to cut the bulk of their operations.
As is the case in other regions around the world, it is unpredictable how the Canadian aviation industry will have changed once the COVID-19 crisis is over, but it is likely that not all current operators will survive.
The above is a selection of in-depth insights on the latest developments in the aviation and travel industry related to the COVID-19 outbreak. CAPA Membership includes a range of reports featuring accurate data and independent commentary from our global team of analysts, who offer a unique perspective and actionable insights to help improve decision making. For more information about CAPA Membership, please click here.
Coronavirus Situation Report
Global deaths increasing by more than 10% every day
202 countries are now affected
For the second day in a row more than 75,000 new cases were diagnosed
New cases by day (2-Apr-2020)
Confirmed COVID-19 cases by day, excluding China (2-Apr-2020)
USA well over 200,000, increasing faster than any nation before it
Top ten locations for COVID-19 (2-Apr-2020)
Top ten highest increases in infections by location (2-Apr-2020)
Global cumulative cases (2-Apr-2020)
Global mortality rate (purple line) vs. key locations mortality rate (2-Apr-2020)
Spread of virus is proving difficult to manage
The growth rate of the COVID-19 virus has differed greatly between countries depending on the measures in place to combat the spread.
Aggressive containment in countries like Japan and Singapore has slowed the pace of spread of the virus.
The comparison below shows the growth rate per selected country once each has reached 100 cases - so there are different start dates e.g. that threshold was reached first for Japan, so that country was 27 days in.
Germany, the fourth country's infection growth rate to overtake China
Daily increase in COVID-19 cases, selected countries : Day 1 = 100 case threshold
Aggressive containment appears to slow the growth rate (daily counting starts once the country reaches 100 cases)
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