COVID-19. Data on virus case numbers are aviation's lead indicator

As the number of global COVID -19 coronavirus cases continues to grow, world airline capacity declines are accelerating weekly.

Asia Pacific has been hardest hit, although the rate of seat decline has slowed, mainly reflecting a flattening of the curve of COVID-19 cases in China. By contrast, the rate of fall in Europe, Middle East and Africa is accelerating. North America is relatively stable so far, while Latin America capacity is still growing (but growth has slowed).

Current OAG schedules data (combined with seat configuration data from the CAPA Fleet Database) show a year-on-year fall in global seat capacity of -14.7% for the week of 16-Mar-2020 - the fastest drop so far this year. They also project that the decline will narrow to -4.0% by the end of Apr-2020.

However, these statistics inevitably lag reality, and will do so until forward looking schedules data fully reflect recent (and still evolving) airline plans to shrink further. Moreover, demand is falling faster than capacity.

World Health organisation data on COVID -19 cases are likely to remain the best (and only) lead indicator for aviation while the current crisis lasts.