Could Iceland’s Keflavik Airport – and Icelandic tourism - be at risk from volcanic activity?

Summary

• Iceland's volcanic activity has contributed hugely, especially since 2010, to its tourist appeal - but could it now diminish it?
• The series of eruptions, following earthquakes, on the Reykjanes Peninsula, is unprecedented in recent times and has taken scientists by surprise.
• The town of Grindavik has been partly destroyed already by an earthquake and the advancing lava.
• The major tourist attraction of the Blue Lagoon, only 5km from Grindavik, has twice had to close.
• At present the direction of the flow is not towards that attraction, or to the main Keflavik International Airport beyond it.
• But almost the entire peninsula is made up of lava from previous eruptions over centuries and millennia, and the potential is clear for all to see.
• In the worst-case scenario, both the airport and the tourist industry could be impacted.

Iceland has been a leading global location of volcanic activity for centuries, and that is central to its tourist offer

Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are hardly new to Iceland, which is one of the world's youngest countries and one still in a process of formation. It has 35 volcano systems across the country - the highest number in Europe and 11^th in the world.

In 1963 a new island emerged out of the sea off the southern coast called Surtsey, close to the Vestmannaeyjar (Westman Islands), whose tiny main island, Heimaey, has to live with two volcanoes, and was in fact destroyed by an eruption in 1973.

Indeed, what that activity has done to the landscape, and continues to do, is central to the country's tourist offer, which attracted 2.2 million of them through the international Keflavik Airport in 2023 - or almost six for each permanent resident. Keflavik Airport handled 7.75 million passengers in 2023, up 26.5% year-on-year.

Those tourist attractions include the 'geysirs', or erupting hot springs; the huge rift valley through the 'Thingvellir' national park, where the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates are drifting apart; and numerous volcanoes, some of which are located beneath glaciers, such as at the infamous Eyjafjallajökull, the eruption of which caused enormous disruption to air travel across Western Europe in 2010 and at the same time put the country on the tourist map for many people who hadn't even heard of it.

But that volcanic activity can be lethal.

It can occur anywhere, and there are only two sizeable parts of the country, all in the north, where they have never occurred.

Volcanic eruption sites in Iceland

Source: Wikipedia (original source unknown).
NOTE: The predominance of eruptions in the southwest of the country, through which the Mid-Atlantic ridge runs, and which is also home to Keflavik Airport, should be noted.

One eruption all but wiped it out

In the worst recorded case, that of the Laki (Lakagigar) volcano in 1783/84, pollution led to the deaths of over 50% of Iceland's livestock, and the destruction of the vast majority of crops.

The resulting famine then killed approximately a quarter of the island's human population. The eight-month emission of sulfuric aerosols resulted in one of the most important climatic and socially significant natural events of the last millennium, relegating Eyjafjallajökull to not much more than a sneeze in comparison, and triggering up to six million deaths worldwide.

Fortunately, Laki has not erupted since, but others have - such as Hekla, one of Iceland's most active volcanoes, known as 'The Gateway to Hell' since the 12^th Century, and one that erupts every 20 years on average.

Cumulatively, Hekla has produced one of the largest volumes of lava of any volcano in the world in the last millennium: around 8km³ (1.9 cubic miles). The most recent eruption was on 26-Feb-2000 and that was quite short and timid by comparison to most. The one in c. BC1000 would have cooled temperatures in the northern parts of the globe for several years afterwards.

Simple mathematics says that another one is due.

Another feared one is the 1.2 km high Katla, partially covered by the Mýrdalsjökull glacier and again in southern Iceland. It normally erupts every 40-80 years. The last minor one was in 1999 and major one in 1918, which extended the southern coast by 5 km (3 miles) due to flood deposits. Worryingly, its present dormancy is among the longest in known history.

The incidence of eruptions has increased dramatically

On average, a volcano erupts in Iceland every five years.

Since 2021, however, the frequency has been closer to every 12 months. And most of the activity has taken place on the bleak, unwelcoming Reykjanes peninsular, a wall of grey/black lava dumped from eruptions over the centuries. It was used by astronauts to prepare for the first lunar missions in the 1960s and will be familiar to anyone who has driven the 50 km (31 miles) between Keflavik Airport and the Icelandic capital, Reykjavik. (And apart from travelling by air, there is no other way to get between the two locations, apart from a huge detour through the area which is erupting right now, and on poor quality roads).

The latest series, since 2021, is concentrated on the Reykjanes peninsula, close to Keflavik Airport

The area broadly known as Fagradalsfjall in Icelandic, and more commonly in English as the "Reykjanes Volcanic System", is in three main areas, some 35 km from Reykjavík and 15 km from the airport. It flared into life after a series of earthquakes on the Reykjanes Peninsula in 2021, again succeeding in attracting locals and tourists alike in their droves to what was a new kind of eruption.

It's 'newness', for tourists at least, arises from the fact that unlike eruptions from cone-shaped volcanoes, which can result in lava descending rapidly, along with dangerous pyroclastic flows (dense, destructive masses of very hot ash, lava fragments, and gases ejected explosively from a volcano), those taking place at Reykjanes are of tectonic fissure vents varying from 750 metres to 3.5 km in length. Or they are shield volcanoes, as they are known, and they are much wider than they are tall, and slower moving; they lack the explosive power of the aforementioned Laki, Hekla, Katla and Eyjafjallajökull.

So they can be viewed from relatively close observation points almost in situ, and they can even be quite clearly seen from higher ground in Reykjavik and surrounding suburbs.

The first ones for over 800 years, but consistently now

No volcanic eruption had occurred for 815 years on the peninsula.

Then, in Oct-2020, a 5.6 earthquake was registered, followed by more than 1,000 aftershocks and succeeded by numerous others over nearly a year.

On 19-Mar-2021 a fissure vent appeared to the south of Fagradalsfjall Mountain and about 15 km from the fishing port of Grindavik, a town of 3,600 people. This fissure was one that was immediately identified by National Geographic as "unlikely to threaten any population centre".

How wrong can you be?

The next fissure eruption in the Fagradalsfjall system started on 01-Aug-2022 and ceased on 22-Aug-2022. Then, on 10 Jul-2023 another fissure eruption began and ended by the beginning of Aug-2023.

Shortly afterwards, in late Oct-2023, an intense series of earthquakes in and around Grindavík prompted the evacuation of the town, as a large underground intrusion indicated that an eruption in the area was imminent. The eruption began on 18-Dec-2023 northeast of Grindavík.

One of Iceland's biggest tourist attractions, the Blue Lagoon geothermal spa to the north of Grindavik, closed as a precaution.

Grindavik on fire

Then another eruption took place again further to the southwest, in the early hours of Sunday 14-Jan-2024.

This time the eruption continued into the town, overwhelming prepared defences.

The Blue Lagoon has been closed again, at least until 17-Jan-2024.

Volcano Watch 2024: lava reaches Grindavík, claims first homes

Source: The Reykjavik Grapevine.

A new era of volcanism could be portentous

What we are seeing here is a series of associated eruptions (five so far) and earthquakes that have not been experienced for many centuries. Scientists are talking about 'a new era of volcanism' in the area - one that repeats the series of fissure eruptions that scarred the peninsula between AD1210 and AD1240.

It is an event that could put paid to Grindavik, which is not a tourist town as such, but which does offer facilities such as food & beverage to tour groups passing through the region, and potentially to the Blue Lagoon, which is only 5 km away.

Map of Grindavik, the latest eruption site, the Blue Lagoon, and Keflavik Airport

Source: Google Maps.

Creeping closer to the airport but not directly along its path

The question that is never asked is whether the eruptions, if they continue and if they increase in intensity, might impact on the functioning of Keflavik Airport, which is 20 km from Grindavik.

So far the civil aviation authorities have been happy to report that flight paths have not been affected, and to leave it at that while the government has also been playing down the dangers. But that is what they are expected to do.

The bearing of the eruptions so far is southwest, in the direction of the fissure, rather than northwest, which would take them towards Keflavik.

But if there is to be "a new era of volcanism throughout the peninsular", then it is not safe. Neither are the towns of Keflavik and Njardvik, where there has been extensive industrial and commercial expansion linked to the proximity of the airport and the Highway 41 to Reykjavik and the rest of Iceland.

As any international visitor to Iceland by air will know, turn out of Keflavik Airport's entrance/exit road and you are immediately in the lava fields. They aren't some distant attraction as Pompeii is to Naples Airport.

The loss of the NATO base might have an adverse impact on events now

Keflavik started life as an Allied military base during World War 2, with two 3000m runways to help secure Iceland from Nazi invasion and occupation (as did Reykjavik's domestic airport), both airports in fact hewn out of the lava field. It remained a major NATO base (the US Navy) until 2006, when it closed.

And with the US exit went not only the 3,000 or so military personnel who had contributed much to the Icelandic economy, but also the expertise that might have helped shore it up from subterranean attack now.

It seems, today, to have been an odd place to put it - in a lava field - but then, there hadn't been an eruption for centuries; so what was there to worry about?

Multiple concerns arise

But it is not only those lava flows that cause concern.

Other worries are:

Fumes.

• Previous eruptions over the past three years have caused panic in the immediate locality, and even in Reykjavik. It is noxious fumes that have killed people and livestock in the past, and Icelanders know it, even if these present day fumes are really only likely to affect those with respiratory problems. Potential tourists soon will know that, too;

Direct impact on tourism.

• The potential closure of the Blue Lagoon for any length of time, which is itself set in the middle of the lava of historical eruptions, would cause shockwaves among those who have experienced it, and encourage an impression of danger. Constant media exposure of the eruptions will inevitably prompt potential visitors to research the dangers, and possibly to find them off-putting.

Earthquakes and fear of them add to the concerns.

• On average, Iceland experiences approximately 500 earthquakes a week, or about 26,000 every year, but most are so minor that they are barely felt, and all buildings are constructed with earthquakes in mind. The Reykjavik metropolitan area hasn't suffered a major earthquake since 1968 (6.0 on the Richter scale) and before that, in 1929, with varying degrees of damage, but Grindavik was badly damaged by one on 24-Oct-2023, before the onslaught of the lava. (The Lisbon, Portugal, earthquake of 1755, one of the largest in history, and one that was felt as far away as Finland and the Caribbean, came out of the blue. There hadn't been one like it since 1531, and before that 1321, but there was minor seismic activity in the build up to it - as there is Iceland now.)

Worries about being caught there in the event of a major catastrophe.

• Not only for those visiting Iceland for tourism or business reasons, but also for those just transiting, and those on a stopover packages en route between Europe and North America - a niche market that Icelandair has successfully developed since the 1960s, becoming a global benchmark for it. One that has also since been copied there by WOW Air and (currently) its successor, Play.

Some airports have been closed permanently, or for years, by volcanic eruptions

There are examples of airports that have been closed for good by volcanic activity, most famously the hugely regionally significant (United States') Clark military airbase north of Manila in the Philippines, which fell victim to the eruption of the (still active) Mount Pinatubo in 1991. That was the second-largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century. The airport did eventually reopen as the commercial Clark International Airport.

In 1997 Montserrat's W. H. Bramble Airport, which had been the island's only aviation gateway, was destroyed by an eruption of the nearby Soufrière Hills volcano. Between 1997 and 2005 Montserrat was then accessible only by helicopters, boats and seaplanes, until the current John A Osborne Airport opened.

Expect the unexpected is a philosophy that is as apposite as ever today

The irony is that volcanic activity in 2010 kick-started the modern day tourist rush to Iceland, one that has spun almost out of control - the major tourist sites are now visited by upward of 10,000 people a day, where three decades ago there would have been a few hundred at best. Reykjavik has been seemingly conquered by foreign visitors.

Could this latest example scupper it?

The answer is probably - not as things stand presently, although it might well temper growth.

But volcanic activity is wholly unpredictable, despite all the science applied to understanding it. In the land where the phrase 'expect the unexpected' was first coined, anything can happen.