Chinese New Year air traffic a boon to airlines but reflects challenges of year-round sustainability

The Chinese New Year travel season, billed as the world's largest migration, once again fills the headlines with astounding numbers of passenger movements. Some airlines set maximums on pricing, for fear of being seen as price gouging if revenue management systems followed their normal pricing curve upwards.

Even the most sceptical investors would be forgiving for contemplating airline ownership during the travel rush. The question, and lurking problem, is what happens the rest of the year.

China's concentrated and en masse travel periods present a challenge for sustainability. Airlines local and foreign are often reduced to hoping that routes will be annually profitable based on a few weeks of travel during Chinese New Year, the brief summer peak, and the autumn holidays. With load factors consistently high, yields are weakened, either on point-to-point traffic or as Chinese airlines aggressively discount connecting/transfer traffic.

On a volume basis, international traffic remains strong, expanding by an estimated 9.3 million passengers in 2016 for 22% growth. Chinese airlines continue to pivot to the international market, and Air China now has more capacity internationally than domestically.