China-Japan market has been dented by Chinese airlines’ capacity cuts

Political tension has caused significant reductions in capacity on routes between mainland China and Japan, although so far the demand drop appears to be affecting Chinese airlines far more than the Japanese majors.

Chinese airlines have been cutting frequencies and seats on flights to Japan since mid-Nov-2025, but the two largest Japanese airlines have largely kept their capacity constant.

The reduction in demand was caused by travel advisories issued by the Chinese government, stemming from comments made by Japan's prime minister regarding Taiwan.

Japan has since also issued a travel advisory for visitors to China.

So far, the demand drop has largely been among Chinese travellers to Japan - particularly leisure travellers.

This will likely have a serious effect on Japan's tourist industry, as China is its second largest source of visitors.

Inbound flows from China had been recovering strongly this year until the travel advisories were issued, and capacity had regained 2019 levels.

Now the latest developments will likely knock back the recovery in China-Japan travel. Even if the advisories were removed soon, leisure bookings have already been made to other destinations.