Asia Pacific fleets tipped to surge
Asia Pacific airlines are expected to take delivery of one new aircraft every day over the next five years, resulting in a 49% increase in the total number of aircraft in the region's fleet, net of disposals. The data, contained in the latest Ascend Global Aircraft detailed global fleet forecast, shows a 35% increase in the Asia Pacific (including India and China) widebody aircraft fleet (to 1,585 units by 2013), a 51% increase in narrowbodies (to 3,195 aircraft) and a 113% increase in regional jets (to 375 aircraft), due mainly to expected growth in China.
- Asia Pacific airlines to take delivery of one new aircraft every day over the next five years – Ascend fleet forecast;
- Widebody fleet to rise by 35% by 2013, narrowbodies by 51% and regional jets to more than double;
- Further 1,759 aircraft scheduled for delivery between 2013 and 2018;
- Emirates aims to become world’s largest long-haul carrier by 2012.
In the following graph, the India and China data are presented separately.
Asia Pacific, India and China fleet forecasts: 2013F and 2018F (units)
Source: Ascend Online Fleets
A further 1,759 aircraft are scheduled for delivery to Asia Pacific airlines between 2013 and 2018, resulting in a regional fleet of 2,158 widebodies, 4,047 narrowbodies and 709 regional jets.
The proportion of widebodies in the region compared to the worldwide fleet is set to rise from 38% in 2008 to 41% by 2018, while the region's narrowbody fleet is poised to soar from 21% of the worldwide total this year to 25% in just five years, and stay at that proportion in 2018.
The regional jet fleet in Asia Pacific accounts for just 6% of the global total, but the Ascend forecast predicts this will rise to 9% in 2013 and more than double to 13% by 2018.
But one airline - from outside the region - is set to eclipse all other long-haul carriers. Emirates has estimated it would become the largest long-haul airline in the world by 2012, when it carries 33 million passengers. The Dubai-based airline, which launched services to its 100th destination - Cape Town - last week, currently has 114 aircraft in service and a further 243 on order.
But technically, in terms of total international traffic (including short and long-haul) Emirates will still have several large carriers ahead of it in 2012, including two rapidly expanding European LCCs, Ryanair & easyJet.
| World's largest international airlines: 2006 | |
| Airline |
Passengers (mill)
|
| Ryanair |
40.5
|
| Lufthansa |
38.2
|
| Air France |
30.4
|
| British Airways |
29.5
|
| KLM |
22.3
|
| easyJet |
21.9
|
| American Airlines |
21.2
|
| Singapore Airlines |
18.0
|
| Emirates |
16.7
|
| Cathay Pacific |
16.7
|
| Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation & IATA | |
But stripping out the European short-haul operations of the current top six, and assuming current industry aircraft orders are maintained, Emirates will become the largest international airline by 2012.