Air cargo demand rebounds in Dec-2023, weaker results for full year, Red Sea conflict's influence

Cargo is one of the more unpredictable aspects of the air transport business. Its recovery from a downturn is historically thought to be the harbinger of the same in the passenger segment, but in 2022 it went backwards while that passenger segment was in full 'post-COVID' recovery mode.

In 2023, while the passenger side of the business reached for the stars, there was a recovery in airfreight, but not one to write home about. Until the final month, that is, when both demand and supply (capacity) went through the roof in some regions.

The most obvious reason for that are the spreading Middle East conflicts, which have occasioned a growing number of attacks on mainly western-flagged shipping in the Red Sea, prompting a switch from maritime to air transport of goods - where it is feasible.

That situation will probably get much worse before it gets better, and in the meantime, in the opening weeks of 2024, air capacity and demand are again on the rise. But strangely, IATA appears to be downplaying the influence of those ongoing conflicts on global air cargo.