Airlines slowing capacity growth as 2011 draws to a close - LCCs buck the trend
The world's airlines are paring back capacity deployment this month, growing their available seat kilometres (ASK) by 5.5% year-on-year - the slowest pace of growth this year. According to Innovata, the world's airlines are scheduling just a 3% increase in flights and a 4.5% increase in seating capacity. It follows last week's warning from IATA that it is "still expecting a general weakening in passenger traffic as we head toward the year-end".
However, the world's LCC continue to buck the global trend, expanding their flights, seats and ASKs by 5.6%, 6.3% and 7.4%, respectively, year-on-year. By seats per week, LCCs now command 22.3% of global aviation. There are a few exceptions to the LCC growth rule, with Ryanair and easyJet enacting seasonal capacity reductions, though this year's cutbacks are particularly harsh.
Global growth in worldwide ASKs, seats and flights (% change year-on-year): Apr-2011 to Nov-2011
SkyTeam growing
The SkyTeam Alliance, which continues to add members, has seen its share of global seats rise to 16.4%, but it still trails Star Alliance's 23.6% share. The oneworld alliance meanwhile continues to cede capacity share.
LCC vs Unaligned vs Alliances capacity and shares (%) of global aviation: Nov-2010 vs Nov-2011*
| Alliance | Time Series | Nov-10 | Nov-11 | % Change | % of Totals | Variance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-10 | Nov-11 | ||||||
| Oneworld | Flights per Week | 54,928 | 56,041 | 2.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | -0.1% |
| Seats per Week | 7,663,878 | 7,828,075 | 2.1% | 11.0% | 10.7% | -0.2% | |
| ASKs per Week | 16,986,245,841 | 17,633,302,403 | 3.8% | 14.4% | 14.1% | -0.2% | |
| SkyTeam Alliance | Flights per Week | 80,176 | 91,190 | 13.7% | 14.3% | 15.8% | 1.5% |
| Seats per Week | 10,088,131 | 11,999,797 | 18.9% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 2.0% | |
| ASKs per Week | 19,028,053,398 | 22,317,896,282 | 17.3% | 16.1% | 17.9% | 1.8% | |
| Star Alliance | Flights per Week | 143,731 | 140,639 | -2.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% | -1.3% |
| Seats per Week | 17,212,707 | 17,202,800 | -0.1% | 24.6% | 23.6% | -1.1% | |
| ASKs per Week | 31,020,898,714 | 31,893,461,063 | 2.8% | 26.3% | 25.6% | -0.7% | |
| Low Cost Carriers | Flights per Week | 105,693 | 111,611 | 5.6% | 18.9% | 19.4% | 0.5% |
| Seats per Week | 15,349,722 | 16,311,195 | 6.3% | 22.0% | 22.3% | 0.4% | |
| ASKs per Week | 18,284,891,593 | 19,641,317,442 | 7.4% | 15.5% | 15.8% | 0.3% | |
| Un-aligned Carriers | Flights per Week | 175,299 | 176,987 | 1.0% | 31.3% | 30.7% | -0.6% |
| Seats per Week | 19,555,522 | 19,653,038 | 0.5% | 28.0% | 26.9% | -1.1% | |
| ASKs per Week | 32,847,620,612 | 33,211,388,822 | 1.1% | 27.8% | 26.6% | -1.2% | |
Fast moving LCCs
Six of the top 25 LCC are growing at rates greater than 20% year-on-year, led by Indigo's astonishing 52.7% increase.
NB: CAPA displays LCC market share growth since 2001 by country or region on the LCC tabs of each country or region page. Type a country into the CAPA Profiles box near the top of this page and click the LCC tab. View the Australia example.
Top 25 LCCs worldwide by capacity (ASKs/week): Nov-2010 vs Nov-2011*
| World Ranking | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | Nov-10 | Nov-11 | %change | Nov-10 | Nov-11 | Variance |
| Southwest Airlines | 3,047,074,668 | 3,058,633,465 | 0.4% | 1 | 1 | - |
| Ryanair | 1,609,562,607 | 1,521,713,986 | -5.5% | 2 | 2 | - |
| JetBlue Airways | 995,616,642 | 1,152,953,032 | 15.8% | 3 | 3 | - |
| easyJet | 951,896,315 | 927,823,071 | -2.5% | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| Gol | 890,273,086 | 980,319,034 | 10.1% | 5 | 4 | +1 |
| Air Berlin | 829,491,166 | 818,307,202 | -1.3% | 6 | 6 | - |
| AirTran Airways | 726,652,289 | 750,027,291 | 3.2% | 7 | 7 | - |
| WestJet | 623,018,735 | 652,302,162 | 4.7% | 8 | 8 | - |
| Jetstar Airways | 558,272,799 | 595,158,056 | 6.6% | 9 | 9 | - |
| Virgin Australia | 541,436,642 | 571,510,930 | 5.6% | 10 | 10 | - |
| Lion Airlines | 468,196,231 | 502,130,652 | 7.2% | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| AirAsia | 462,444,741 | 510,961,248 | 10.5% | 12 | 11 | +1 |
| Frontier Airlines | 433,481,155 | 434,863,084 | 0.3% | 13 | 13 | - |
| Condor | 375,625,951 | 429,498,263 | 14.3% | 14 | 14 | - |
| Thomsonfly | 373,953,146 | 326,997,346 | -12.6% | 15 | 18 | -3 |
| Norwegian | 339,806,426 | 401,843,235 | 18.3% | 16 | 15 | +1 |
| Spirit Airlines | 271,672,970 | 297,675,773 | 9.6% | 17 | 20 | -3 |
| Virgin America | 257,607,894 | 336,251,478 | 30.5% | 18 | 17 | +1 |
| Wizz Air | 245,890,704 | 302,181,115 | 22.9% | 19 | 19 | - |
| Indigo | 238,082,618 | 363,580,357 | 52.7% | 20 | 16 | +4 |
| Vueling Airlines | 226,986,931 | 213,257,457 | -6.0% | 21 | 24 | -3 |
| Air Arabia | 218,585,518 | 240,200,250 | 9.9% | 22 | 23 | -1 |
| Volaris | 190,773,601 | 279,486,990 | 46.5% | 23 | 21 | +2 |
| SpiceJet | 190,473,018 | 271,975,978 | 42.8% | 24 | 22 | +2 |
| CEBU Pacific Air | 159,397,282 | 202,194,816 | 26.8% | n/a | 25 | n/a |
| GRAND TOTAL | 15,226,273,133 | 16,141,846,275 | 6.0% | |||
Top 25 movers
The global top 25 airlines list is largely unchanged from last November, with Delta heading the list from American Airlines. As predicted by CAPA last month, Emirates has gone past United, and Lufthansa may do likewise in coming months, though combined with Continental, the US carrier moves to the top of the list.
The fastest growing carrier in the top flight is Turkish Airlines with another near 30% year-on-year expansion this month.
Global Top 25 Airlines by capacity per week (ASK) - Nov-2010 vs Nov-2011*
| Airline | Nov-10 | Nov-11 | % change | World Ranking | Variance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-10 | Nov-11 | |||||
| Delta Air Lines | 6,912,434,536 | 6,665,489,997 | -3.6% | 1 | 1 | - |
| American Airlines | 5,004,070,946 | 4,983,590,270 | -0.4% | 2 | 2 | - |
| Emirates | 3,790,348,026 | 4,139,909,327 | 9.2% | 4 | 3 | +1 |
| United Airlines | 4,216,771,052 | 3,944,345,222 | -6.5% | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Lufthansa | 3,286,342,268 | 3,530,516,782 | 7.4% | 6 | 5 | +1 |
| Continental Airlines | 3,341,888,409 | 3,329,855,481 | -0.4% | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| Southwest Airlines | 3,047,074,668 | 3,058,633,465 | 0.4% | 7 | 7 | - |
| Air France | 2,922,263,363 | 3,026,797,329 | 3.6% | 8 | 8 | - |
| British Airways | 2,863,678,338 | 3,012,226,917 | 5.2% | 9 | 9 | - |
| US Airways | 2,619,039,956 | 2,611,175,932 | -0.3% | 10 | 10 | - |
| China Southern Airlines | 2,145,789,062 | 2,463,418,493 | 14.8% | 12 | 11 | +1 |
| Cathay Pacific Airways | 2,165,165,878 | 2,450,130,478 | 13.2% | 11 | 12 | -1 |
| Singapore Airlines | 2,122,010,788 | 2,228,478,560 | 5.0% | 13 | 13 | - |
| Air China | 1,889,043,178 | 2,086,536,138 | 10.5% | 15 | 14 | +1 |
| Qantas Airways | 1,917,552,464 | 1,964,218,638 | 2.4% | 14 | 15 | -1 |
| KLM | 1,825,229,976 | 1,874,714,798 | 2.7% | 16 | 16 | - |
| China Eastern Airlines | 1,681,294,197 | 1,862,974,593 | 10.8% | 18 | 17 | +1 |
| Korean Air Lines | 1,667,355,814 | 1,831,472,482 | 9.8% | 20 | 18 | +2 |
| Air Canada | 1,735,607,734 | 1,750,962,612 | 0.9% | 17 | 19 | -2 |
| All Nippon Airways | 1,673,104,766 | 1,695,610,012 | 1.3% | 19 | 20 | -1 |
| Thai Airways | 1,586,987,560 | 1,652,217,742 | 4.1% | 22 | 21 | +1 |
| Qatar Airways | 1,416,739,476 | 1,611,435,616 | 13.7% | n/a | 22 | n/a |
| Turkish Airlines | 1,229,645,553 | 1,585,870,907 | 29.0% | n/a | 23 | n/a |
| Japan Airlines | 1,326,592,226 | 1,531,632,950 | 15.5% | n/a | 24 | n/a |
| Ryanair | 1,609,562,607 | 1,521,713,986 | -5.5% | 21 | 25 | -4 |
| GRAND TOTAL | 63,995,592,840 | 66,413,928,728 | 3.8% | |||