Analysis Reports

Brazil has always been a key market in Latin America - but 2026 is arguably a new chapter in the country's aviation history.

All three of the country's largest airlines - Azul, GOL and LATAM - have restructured under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection during the last few years, and are shaping what appears to be a rational environment in a country with significant potential.

But there are challenges specific in Brazil, including high fuel costs and significant levels of litigation for the country's airlines.

Despite those obstacles, the country's aviation sector is brimming with potential.

It's not clear how the conflict in the Middle East could ultimately shape airline demand, but for now Brazilian airlines are optimistic about their prospects.

While there is no exact figure, it is safe to estimate that there are thousands of small island airports worldwide, ranging from major international hubs to small regional airstrips.

Those minor ones might handle a very small number of passengers annually, but their passengers still rightly demand a high level of service - which they are paying for, directly or indirectly.

When it is the indigenous population that is being catered to, those demands can be high, but they will almost certainly be exceeded when big buck-paying tourists are involved as well.

This report looks at two island airports, in the South Pacific and South Atlantic oceans respectively, where the needs of the local population and the diaspora are complicated by tourist demands.

In the first case, that tourist demand, a select and expensive one, has existed for some time; while in the second one, via an airport only inaugurated in 2016 and described by a journalist the following year as "the world's most useless airport", it has materialised at a higher rate than what was probably expected, putting some strain on limited tourist infrastructure on the ground and raising red flags about future demand.

In both cases the report puts forward tentative proposals for how the airports could be improved, some of which might be appropriate to other island airports, while considering to what extent the private sector might be attracted to these facilities.

This is part one of a two-part report.

Europe's three largest airline groups - Lufthansa Group, International Airlines Group and Air France-KLM - display notable similarities in the scale of their widebody fleets, yet important structural differences emerge when their broader fleet compositions are examined.

As at 9-Mar-2026, Air France-KLM leads marginally in widebody aircraft in service with 195, ahead of IAG's 190 and Lufthansa Group's 189. However, Lufthansa Group's position as the largest overall operator among the three is underpinned by its significantly larger narrowbody fleet and its broader multi-brand structure.

Lufthansa Group operates 444 narrowbody aircraft, considerably more than IAG and Air France-KLM, giving it a decisive advantage in short- and medium-haul capacity. By contrast, Air France-KLM maintains the largest regional fleet, reflecting the role of regional operators such as KLM Cityhopper and HOP! in feeding its hub networks.

At the brand level, the core Lufthansa airline has the largest individual fleet among the main subsidiaries of the three groups, while second-tier brands such as KLM, Eurowings and Vueling play significant roles in shaping each group's operational profile.

Differences also extend to cargo strategy, fleet age and aircraft orders, highlighting divergent strategic priorities. Lufthansa Group's substantial orderbook and growing network of affiliated airlines further reinforce its scale advantage, positioning it for continued leadership within Europe's evolving airline group landscape.

This report compares the fleet numbers of Europe's three leading legacy airline groups and of their extended groups (which include associates, affiliates and franchise operators).

While Qantas' latest results show that it remains in a very healthy financial condition, the airline is still tweaking its international network to adapt to changing geographic demand patterns.

The airline's latest adjustments reflect softening outbound travel to the US, and also strengthening demand on its Singapore flights.

Both the US and Singapore represent major components of the airline's international business, while Singapore is also an important network node for international connectivity.

So getting the settings right in these markets is critical.

The major change is the switch of another of Qantas' ten Airbus A380s from the US market to Singapore. While this may seem like a small adjustment, it is emblematic of the demand trajectories.

In another tweak, Qantas has shifted some of its US capacity to open a new seasonal route to Las Vegas.

Qantas also revealed new details about its aircraft deliveries and fleet plans during its half-year earnings call on 26-Feb-2026.

The airline has seen a welcome increase in narrowbody delivery rates, and is expecting almost 50 deliveries over a two-year period.

The most watched of these will be the widebodies for the Qantas ultra-long range flights, but the narrowbodies are also very important for the airline's fleet renewal.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly moved from experimentation to boardroom priority across the airline industry.

Carriers worldwide are investing in data science, automation and machine learning to improve pricing, optimise networks and strengthen operational resilience.

Yet despite the enthusiasm, many AI initiatives remain trapped in complex technology programmes that struggle to translate into tangible commercial results.

The challenge is rarely the technology itself. Airlines operate in highly integrated environments built on decades of systems investment, regulatory oversight and operational discipline. Replacing core platforms is costly, disruptive and often impractical.

As a result, the industry is increasingly recognising that the real opportunity for AI lies not in wholesale transformation but in practical augmentation - enhancing the intelligence of existing processes rather than rebuilding them.

Across aviation, examples of this shift are beginning to emerge. Airlines are experimenting with machine learning to refine demand forecasting, automate operational decision support and strengthen predictive maintenance. Meanwhile, dynamic pricing capabilities are evolving rapidly as carriers seek to respond faster to volatile demand patterns and competitive pressures.

But implementing these capabilities at scale remains a complex challenge. Success depends not only on algorithms but on organisational alignment, data integration and trust in automated decision-making.

For airline leaders, the question is no longer whether AI will play a role in future operations, but how it can be deployed in ways that deliver measurable commercial value without destabilising existing systems.

Approaching four years since its Jun-2022 start of operations, Norse Atlantic Airways is something of an enigma.

It has been hailed by Skytrax as the world's fifth best long haul airline for 2025, and the best in Europe. It achieved an industry-leading load factor of 96% and a flight completion rate of 99.4% in 2025.

However, its fourth successive annual loss in 2025 is a reminder that it has yet to report an annual profit, and its original mission of operating scheduled long haul low cost services on the North Atlantic struggled to generate enough demand to fill its aircraft throughout the year.

A strategic shift to reduce its reliance on the summer-led Atlantic, while adding winter services to Thailand and South Africa within a smaller overall network has improved the performance of its own operations.

Combined with a simultaneous move into third party flying, most notably for IndiGo on India-Europe routes, Norse Atlantic has improved its aircraft utilisation, decreased its revenue risk, and offered itself a path to margin improvement.

Australia is one of those countries where there is no clear 'main city' and, the capital territory apart, the battle for appropriate recognition is mainly between the two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne.

Sydney's airport is a little busier, and this year there will be the opening of a second airport there in the west of the conurbation, which might split existing traffic flows to a greater degree than is the case in Melbourne.

For its part, Melbourne's main Tullamarine Airport will make the second largest single project airport investment in the country's history on a terminal expansion basis, in addition to the third runway that should be completed by 2031 - putting it on par with Sydney's Kingsford Smith Airport - and an air rail project that will connect it to the city and suburban areas.

Tullamarine already benefits from 24/7, and these initiatives will ensure it continues to compete with Sydney for new routes, including those that are part of 'Project Sunrise' (that will connect the heavily populated southeast quarter of Australia directly to Europe and North America).

China was the origin of the coronavirus COVID-19, and accordingly its aviation business suffered from its pandemic onslaught worse than other countries.

Yet within China the impact varied between cities and regions, for numerous reasons, and one airport - Guangzhou Baiyun - briefly became the world's busiest, outshining airports such as Atlanta, Dubai International and Beijing Capital; the latter having been the world's second busiest in 2019 and one of only two airports ever to exceed 100mppa.

As Beijing Capital is the country's main gateway to the capital one might have expected it to have resumed full operations by now, but that is not the case. It has slipped to 15th busiest globally in 2025, and passenger traffic is only at 70% of 2019 levels.

Worse still, it has been hemorrhaging money, losing as much as USD1.6 billion over five years, with further losses anticipated for 2025.

With luck it might break even in 2026.

The reasons for this state of affairs are more complex than just the lingering impact of the pandemic, and include ageing infrastructure and the consequence of the opening of Daxing Airport in 2019, which is now proving to be a classic case of the strategic issues that can be caused by dual hub operation.

Before the military strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, US airlines appeared to be acclimatised to a certain level of policy uncertainty, stemming from the administration of President Trump.

And while the latest conflict in the Middle East should have little effect on US airlines from a network perspective, its duration could create even greater uncertainty around the country's economic prospects, and possibly disrupt previous assumptions made regarding demand in 2026.

The coming weeks could offer clues about how disruption in the Middle East could influence demand as airlines begin to reinforce, or issue, different guidance for their respective first quarter performances, which (in some cases) were moulded by a K shaped economy.

The sudden surge in global oil prices following escalating conflict in the Middle East has once again placed airline fuel strategies under intense scrutiny.

In just a week, crude prices have jumped nearly 40%, raising the spectre of USD150 oil and triggering concerns across the aviation industry about cost exposure, profitability and the resilience of airline business models.

For airlines, fuel remains the single largest variable cost, and the current shock is revealing stark differences in how airlines manage risk.

North American airlines have largely abandoned fuel hedging programmes in recent years, leaving them exposed to rapid price swings.

In contrast, many European airlines continue to maintain substantial hedge coverage, extending several years into the future.

Meanwhile, Asia Pacific airlines adopt a mix of strategies, shaped by regulatory frameworks and varying levels of market exposure.

This report examines which airlines are most vulnerable to rising jet fuel costs, how different hedging policies may cushion - or amplify - the impact, and what the current geopolitical shock means for airline financial performance in 2026 and beyond.

As oil markets react to geopolitical volatility and supply disruptions, the aviation industry faces a familiar question: in a world of unpredictable crises, does fuel hedging still offer a strategic advantage - or simply another layer of risk?