United Continental forecasts decline in 4Q2011 traffic, PRASM improvements

United Continental provided (22-Dec-2011) the following forecasts:

• 4Q2011:
  • Passenger revenue per ASM: USD 12.96 cents to USD 13.08 cents, +8.5% to +9.5% year-on-year;
    • Mainline: USD 11.85 cents to USD 11.96 cents, +7.5% to +8.5%;
  • Operating cost per ASM excl profit sharing: USD 14.34 cents to USD 14.39 cents, +11.1% to +11.5%;
    • Mainline: USD 13.56 cents to USD 13.61 cents, +11.8% to +12.2%;
  • Cost per ASM excl fuel and profit sharing: USD 9.18 cents to USD 9.23 cents +2.2% to +2.7%;
    • Mainline: USD 8.75 cents to USD 8.80 cents, +3.2% to +3.7%;
  • Consolidated traffic (RPMs): -4% to -3%;
    • Mainline: -4.4% to -3.4%;
  • Consolidated load factor: 81.1% to 81.9%, -0.9 ppt to -0.1 ppt;
    • Mainline: 81.5% to 82.4%, -1.2 ppt to -0.3 ppt;
• FY2011:
  • Passenger revenue per ASM: USD 12.92 cents to USD 13.03 cents, +9.0% to +10.0%;
    • Mainline: USD 11.87 cents to USD 11.97 cents, +8.8% to +9.8%;
  • Operating cost per ASM excl profit sharing: USD 13.68 cents to USD 13.70 cents, +10.9% to +11.0%;
    • Mainline: USD 12.82 cents to USD 12.84 cents, +10.9% to +11.0%;
  • Cost per ASM excl fuel and profit sharing: USD 8.76 cents to USD 8.78 cents, +2.1% to 2.4%;
    • Mainline: USD 8.27 cents to USD 8.29 cents, +2.7% to +3.0%;
  • Consolidated traffic (RPMs): -2.0% to -1.0%;
    • Mainline: -2.1% to -1.1%;
  • Consolidated load factor: 81.7% to 82.7%, -1.5 ppt to -0.5 ppt;
    • Mainline: 82.3% to 83.4%, -1.6 ppt to -0.5 ppt. [more - original PR]

United Continental: "Compared to the same period last year, for the next six weeks, mainline domestic advance booked seat factor is up 3.7 points, mainline international advance booked seat factor is flat, mainline Atlantic advance booked seat factor is down 1.8 points, mainline Pacific advance booked seat factor is down 2.7 points and mainline Latin America advance booked seat factor is up 3.3 points. Regional advance booked seat factor is up 2.1 points." Company statement. Source: United Continental, 22-Dec-2011.