Embraer forecast regional jet deliveries could return to 2008 levels within two years, with 140 to 160 deliveries forecast for 2012 (Reuters, 16-Jun-2010). The manufacturer expects to deliver approximately 90 regional jets this year, down from 120 in 2009 and 160 in 2008.
Two years before deliveries return to 2008 levels: Embraer
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Global commercial aircraft deliveries fell in 2016 as Boeing again outsold Airbus; 2017 to be a peak
The global commercial aircraft fleet grew by 4% in 2016 and the year ended with an order backlog of more than nine years of production. Among the regions, North America still has the biggest and oldest fleet, but the lowest ratio of orders to aircraft in service. By contrast, Middle East has the fewest in service, but the highest ratio of orders to current fleet numbers.
This report gives an overview of the number of commercial aircraft deliveries in 2016 and the outlook into 2017 and beyond. It also looks at numbers in service and on order by region. It is based on preliminary numbers from the CAPA Fleet Database and guidance on 2016 deliveries from Airbus and Boeing, who have yet to announce final numbers.
The data indicate that total worldwide deliveries fell in 2016, the first such decline for six years, as a result of delays to new aircraft programmes. Boeing delivered more aircraft than Airbus for the fifth straight year, but its deliveries fell short of its 2015 level, while Airbus increased its numbers year-on-year. Total deliveries will likely rise again in 2017, but this may prove to be a peak year.
The Trump presidency casts a long shadow over a tentative recovery in Latin America
After battling dismal economic conditions for the past two years, Latin America is poised to begin pulling itself out of fiscal decay in 2017. Near the end of 2016, forecasts tilted toward a return of modest GDP growth between 1.5% and 2% for 2017 after the region endured an economic recession for the prior two years.
But the emerging optimism was significantly clouded when the US selected Donald Trump as its next president in Nov-2016. An already weak Mexican peso (MXN) plunged against the US dollar (USD) on fears of a Trump Administration abolishing NAFTA, engaging in mass deportation and following through on plans to erect a wall on the US-Mexico border. Economists have already issued revisions to Mexico’s projected economic growth for 2017, and the benefits of a new liberalised bilateral between the two countries are in jeopardy as airlines have to adjust their growth prospects to reflect a potential new era of protectionism.
Broader implications of Mr Trump’s presidency on Latin America will emerge over time; hopefully they will not be as sombre as the politicking noises might suggest.
But even so the current cloud of continuing uncertainty ushered in by his election could become an impediment to recovering economies and air traffic flows within, and to and from the region – just as demand was starting a tepid recovery near the end of 2016. Any downward revision to Latin America’s economic forecast for 2017 places airlines operating in the region in a precarious position.